Portions of the Plains were certainly wishing and praying for April showers as the lack of needed moisture continued. As we get farther into 2018, the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles continue to see very little precipitation with some parts of those areas only picking up around a half inch of precipitation in the last six months.
As of April 15, 65 percent of winter wheat in Oklahoma was rated in poor to very poor condition with 63 percent of winter wheat in Texas listed under poor to very poor, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Not only were parts of Oklahoma dealing with ongoing drought, large wildfires also burned thousands of acres along with structures in the fire’s path in April.
Deficits in topsoil moisture stretched into other parts of the plains as well. As of April 15, over 50 percent of topsoil moisture was considered short to very short in Kansas and Colorado, according to the USDA.
The worldwide view continued to show La Niña starting to transition within the past month. By around mid-April, conditions including sea surface temperatures and temperatures deeper in portions of the Pacific Ocean were indicating La Niña winding down and starting to approach ENSO-neutral. When ENSO-neutral is present, conditions reflect neither La Niña nor El Niño.
We must see the ENSO-neutral setup for roughly an entire month though before it is considered a complete switch. Once the switch happens, ENSO-neutral is forecast to continue through the summer.
The outlook for May shows the potential for above normal temperatures for all of the southern plains and even into the central plains. From southern Nebraska into Texas, temperatures should average above normal for May. That trend is actually expected to continue into the next several months for the same area.
In contrast, parts of the northern plains should see temperatures mainly below normal within the month of May.
May precipitation will likely be below normal for the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas, along with far southwest Kansas stretching into most of Colorado. Coastal regions of Texas and the northern plains should get above normal precipitation within the next month.
There are not any strong signals indicating below or above average precipitation beyond the next month for most of the southern to central plains. In western Colorado, below average precipitation should prevail through the next three months.
I’m always keeping an eye to the sky (and the weather patterns), so stay tuned for next month’s update.
Regina Bird grew up on a farm near Belleville, Kansas. The views from the farm helped spur her interest in weather. She is a meteorologist for NTV and KFXL in central Nebraska. Follow her on Twitter: @ReginaBirdWX.
