The last days of summer are approaching and El Niño–Southern Oscillation-neutral has been in control for the summer months. A switch to El Niño is still favored sometime in the fall with oceanic and atmospheric conditions expected to reflect the change.
Although El Niño impacts can vary based on how everything unfolds, many times it will lead to wetter and cooler than normal winter conditions for the southern United States.
Last month, moisture had a positive impact for parts of the Plains. As of the latter part of August, beneficial rain (heavy in some areas) brought improvement to drought conditions in eastern Kansas and southeast Nebraska along with portions of Oklahoma and Texas. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Wichita Falls, Texas, broke its daily record for rainfall for the entire month of August and Aug. 13 when 4.79 inches was recorded.
The following day Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, also set a new daily record for rainfall for August with 5.06 inches of rain. Based on information from the USDA, near the end of August, topsoil moisture and subsoil moisture were improved for Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska and Colorado.
Texas is split for what’s expected in terms of precipitation within the next month. The southeast corner of the state is expected to see below normal precipitation. In contrast, the panhandle of Texas is favored for above average precipitation. Western Oklahoma, western Kansas and Colorado could also pick up above average precipitation during September.
Temperatures are expected on average to be above normal for the month of September for Texas, southern Oklahoma and much of Colorado.
The fall months (through November) look to have temperatures average above normal for all of the Plains states.
Precipitation for the next three months is favored to be above average for western Colorado, while there are no strong signals for above or below average precipitation for the rest of the area.
For drought conditions, improvements are expected for central and eastern Kansas along with Oklahoma within the next few months. Parts of northern into central Texas will likely continue to see drought conditions remaining in the next three months.
I’m always keeping an eye to the sky (and the weather patterns), so watch for next month’s update.
Editor’s note: Regina Bird grew up on a farm near Belleville, Kansas. The views from the farm helped spur her interest in weather. Following high school, she went on to get a bachelor’s degree in meteorology from the University of Kansas. She currently works as a meteorologist for NTV and KFXL in central Nebraska. Follow her on Twitter: @ReginaBirdWX.
