The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Statistics Service recently released it’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand report raising its harvest estimate for corn to 14.827 billion bushels. This is an increase of more than 241 million bushels projected a month ago. If realized, the crop would be the second-highest on record, nearing the record of 15.1 billion bushels set in 2016. The national average corn yield is now estimated at 181.3 bushels per acre up from the 178.4 the month prior.
Given increased demand projections, corn price projections were lowered 10 cents at the midpoint to reflect the anticipated size of the supply.
Yield projections are also forecast to set records in many states including: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio and South Dakota. The overall increase to projected yield, if realized, led to the 241 million bushel per acre increase to production estimates.
Feed and residual use and export demand projections were raised by 50 million bushels each, with ethanol demand estimates raised by 25 million bushels. As the increase to production projections more than offset these demand increases, the average farm price was decreased by 10 cents, with the new price range projected as $3 to $4 per bushel.
Corn exports estimates for 2018/19 are raised for Ukraine, Serbia and Paraguay, but lowered for Canada and South Africa. Imports are raised for the EU, Japan, Brazil and Guatemala, with partly offsetting declines for Algeria and Saudi Arabia. For 2017/18, exports are lowered for both Brazil and Argentina, reflecting slower-than-expected trade to date. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2018/19 are down from last month, with declines for Argentina, South Africa, Ukraine, Canada and Serbia more than offsetting increases for Angola, Paraguay, the EU, Brazil, Turkey and India. Global corn stocks, at 157.0 million tons, are up 1.5 million from last month.
