Multiple fronts are opening in the fight against highly pathogenic avian influenza—and higher egg prices. According to a new report, though, those higher egg prices are not entirely due to avian flu.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service says that more than 150 million birds in the United States have been affected with HPAI since February 2022, including backyard and commercial flocks.
On Feb. 6, CoBank, part of the U.S. Farm Credit System, released a report that noted, “U.S. consumers are facing a prolonged period of higher egg prices that will likely extend through the Easter holiday and well into 2025. Rising egg prices and increased volatility in the market are largely attributable to supply challenges brought on by highly pathogenic avian influenza.”
Rising demand, not just bird flu
However, the report added that consumer demand for eggs has “skyrocketed” since 2016, ensuring that egg prices would have risen even without avian flu—albeit not by as much, according to CoBank, with per capita consumption growing by 20% from 2016 to 2019. “Demand has also shifted away from conventional eggs as more consumers are choosing cage-free and other types of specialty eggs – further complicating the supply challenges.”
Demand for cage-free eggs has outpaced supply in recent years, the report said. Currently, more than 120 million or roughly 40% of the table egg layers in U.S. commercial flocks are housed in cage-free production systems. Nine states have enacted laws that require eggs sold in their states to be from cage-free hens.
Perhaps surprising to some, given the rise in egg prices, CoBank reported that total egg laying hen inventories, including conventionally raised hens, “have not been substantially depleted from where they were at the beginning of the HPAI outbreak” because commercial operators have swiftly repopulated flocks. Through January 2025, the U.S. egg industry has only 8% fewer egg-laying hens than it did two years ago.
“But HPAI has evolved to become a persistent, year-round threat to production,” the report added. The U.S. plans to import up to 420 million eggs from Türkiye (formerly Turkey), according to several news sources, in an effort to lower egg prices for consumers.
Petition to repeal shell egg rule
On Feb. 20, the National Chicken Council petitioned the Food & Drug Administration to reverse or modify an Obama-era regulation that forces the broiler industry (chickens raised for meat) to discard what the council said were “perfectly nutritious and safe eggs” into the broken-egg market. The council had previously petitioned for the rule to be revoked, but the petition was denied under former President Joe Biden in 2023.
“With government risk assessments affirming their safety, and the fact that surplus broiler hatching eggs would be pasteurized (cooked), we respectfully request FDA to immediately exercise its enforcement discretion to allow these eggs to be sent for breaking, helping to ease costs and inflationary pressures for consumers,” said Ashley Peterson, Ph.D., NCC senior vice president of scientific and regulatory affairs.
Granting NCC’s request would release almost 400 million eggs into the broken egg supply each year, the council said. That would prevent table eggs from being used as ingredients in salad dressings, bread, cake mix, pasta, pancake mix, mayonnaise, ice cream, pie crusts, sauces and other food products.
“Is this a silver bullet that will bring down the cost of eggs tomorrow? No,” Peterson said, “but it is one option that could be part of a broader plan to help relieve some pressure on the egg supply as the situation worsens.”
“We are eager to get to work with the Trump administration to advance policies that provide relief to American consumers who are struggling with inflation and high food prices, including record egg prices exacerbated by the HPAI outbreak,” Peterson added. “An exemption to the FDA’s ‘Shell Egg Rule,’ will do just that.”
Avian flu vaccine conditionally approved
Meanwhile, global animal health company Zoetis recently announced USDA’s Center for Veterinary Biologics has issued the company a conditional license for its Avian Influenza Vaccine, H5N2 Subtype, Killed Virus. The vaccine is labeled for use in chickens. The conditional license was granted on the demonstration of safety, purity and reasonable expectation of efficacy based on serology data.
In a statement, Zoetis said, “The decision to vaccinate commercial poultry flocks against HPAI rests solely with national regulatory authorities in partnership with the poultry industry.”
A Zoetis spokesperson confirmed that the distribution and use of avian influenza vaccines are controlled by the USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Veterinary Services. “USDA APHIS VS authorization is required to sell and distribute AI vaccines in the U.S. We cannot speculate on the cost or manufacturing [of the vaccine] at this time. A conditional license does not grant us authority to distribute, promote or sell the vaccine.”
The USDA has said that any decision to use vaccination requires careful consideration of available vaccines, any impacts of using HPAI vaccine in the field and the potential trade impacts. “Zoetis stands ready to help our poultry producers implement a vaccination strategy should the USDA, together with the poultry industry, decide that is the appropriate course of action,” the company said.
A conditional license is used to meet an emergency condition, limited market, local situation or other special circumstance and is issued for a finite period of time. Conditional licenses may be renewed at the discretion of the CVB.
Zoetis has a long history of developing vaccines to address avian influenza in multiple countries. In 2016, the company received a conditional license for its H5N1 vaccine and a contract award for the USDA’s National Veterinary Stockpile.
Dr. James Barton is the newly installed director of the Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory at the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture. Arkansas is the third-largest producer of broiler meat. Barton’s lab has a staff of six and offers full services including necropsies, serology and testing for all poultry diseases.
Avian flu is not the only threat that Barton’s lab monitors. It is also monitoring avian metapneumovirus, a respiratory virus in chickens that USDA began tracking in January 2024. While it has not gotten the “press” of avian flu, it is still of concern.
“The symptoms may not be serious in themselves, but if present it could interact with other pathogens or viruses,” Barton said. However, in December, the USDA approved importation of a live avian metapneumovirus vaccine, into the U.S. Developed by Vaxxinova in Italy, the vaccine is a lyophilized live attenuated metapneumovirus vaccine to protect against swollen head syndrome in poultry.
Vaxinnova said it “has demonstrated exceptional efficacy and safety through rigorous testing and evaluation.”
“As a result of the collaboration with industry organizations such as National Turkey Federation, poultry producers and the USDA, Vaxxinova U.S. is now able to offer the same vaccine to the U.S. market that Vaxxinova Italy has been providing to customers for the past 20-plus years,” a Vaxxinova spokesperson said.
Prevention remains key
Barton told High Plains Journal, “Prevention remains the main way of dealing with avian flu. Biosecurity is very strict. All flocks are tested and constantly monitored. Anything unusual gets noticed, and steps to contain it are implemented rapidly.” He said the pressure to test constantly comes from restaurants and grocery owners, as well as federal and state authorities. Barton notes that heat is bad for the avian flu virus. He said he has observed that transmission rates slow during hot months. “The risk is higher in the fall.”
The bottom line for consumers, Barton said, is, “Our food supply is the safest in the world, and it’s safer than ever.”
David Murray can be reached at journal@hpj.com.
