Some pockets of beneficial rain in July led to improvement to the drought situation in parts of the Plains, while others dealt with ongoing or worsening drought conditions.
Rain in July even broke records in parts of the plains.
Early in July, a daily record rainfall total was recorded for San Antonio, Texas (2.54 inches on July 9). Nearby Timberwood Park had 13.04 inches of rain in a five-day period ending July 10, according to the USDA. Also, from July 9 to 12 Nevada, Texas, picked up 9.08 inches of rain.
Although parts of Texas had a wet stretch in July, other parts of the plains were still dealing with a lack of rain along with heat that continued to impact soil moisture. The U.S. Department of Agriculture listed 64 percent of topsoil moisture in Texas as short to very short with right at 50 percent at that mark in Oklahoma around mid-July. Seventy-two percent of subsoil moisture rated short to very short in Texas as of the middle of July with 60 percent in Oklahoma.
The southern plains is looking at the possibility of below normal precipitation for the month ahead. Western Colorado is favored in the long-term forecast for above normal precipitation in August.
Below average precipitation could continue the next three months for mainly the eastern halves of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. Above average precipitation is still anticipated for western Colorado the next several months.
In the coming months, drought conditions are expected to be ongoing or develop for most of Texas (excluding the coastal areas), central and eastern Oklahoma along with central to eastern Kansas.
For a good chunk of the lower 48, temperatures are expected to average above normal for August. The exception would be most of the northern plains.
Further out, the same still holds true with above normal temperatures forecast into the early part of fall for all except portions of the northern plains.
ENSO-neutral conditions continued for July, but changes are still anticipated in future months. Forecast models continue to favor the possibility of a switch to El Niño by fall or winter. Many times with El Niño, the southern United States will have a cooler and wetter winter than normal while in the far northern Plains a warmer than average winter is usually the result of an ongoing El Niño.
I’m always keeping an eye to the sky (and the weather patterns), so watch for September’s update.
Editor’s note: Regina Bird grew up on a farm near Belleville, Kansas. The views from the farm helped spur her interest in weather. Following high school, she went on to get a bachelor’s degree in meteorology from the University of Kansas. She currently works as a meteorologist for NTV and KFXL in central Nebraska. Follow her on Twitter: @ReginaBirdWX.
