The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation (the Foundation) recently released the July 2018 Monthly Confidence Index for the Equipment Finance Industry. Designed to collect leadership data, the index reports a qualitative assessment of both the prevailing business conditions and expectations for the future as reported by key executives from the $1 trillion equipment finance sector. Overall, confidence in the equipment finance market is 62.8 in July, easing from the June index of 66.2.
When asked about the outlook for the future, MCI-EFI survey respondent Michael Romanowski, president, Farm Credit Leasing Services Corporation, said, “Customers continue to digest the changes related to tax reform to determine how best to finance capital investment. Some customers are delaying capital investment until they better understand the impacts related to tariffs.”
July 2018 Survey Results:
The overall MCI-EFI is 62.8 in July, a decrease from 66.2 in June.
When asked to assess their business conditions over the next four months, 19.4 percent of executives responding said they believe business conditions will improve over the next four months, a decrease from 33.3 percent in June. 77.4 percent of respondents believe business conditions will remain the same over the next four months, an increase from 63.6 percent the previous month. 3.2 percent believe business conditions will worsen, relatively unchanged from 3.0 percent who believed so the previous month.
19.4 percent of survey respondents believe demand for leases and loans to fund capital expenditures will increase over the next four months, a decrease from 24.2 percent in June. 77.4 percent believe demand will “remain the same” during the same four-month time period, an increase from 75.8 percent the previous month. 3.2 percent believe demand will decline, up from none who believed so in June.
16.1 percent of the respondents expect more access to capital to fund equipment acquisitions over the next four months, up from 15.2 percent in June. 83.9 percent of executives indicate they expect the “same” access to capital to fund business, a decrease from 84.9 percent last month. None expect “less” access to capital, unchanged from last month.
When asked, 45.2 percent of the executives report they expect to hire more employees over the next four months, a decrease from 57.6 percent in June. 51.6 percent expect no change in headcount over the next four months, an increase from 42.4 percent last month. 3.2 percent expect to hire fewer employees, an increase from none in June.
41.9 percent of the leadership evaluate the current U.S. economy as “excellent,” up from 39.4 percent last month. 58.1 percent of the leadership evaluate the current U.S. economy as “fair,” down from 60.6 percent in June. None evaluate it as “poor,” unchanged from last month.
12.9 percent of the survey respondents believe that U.S. economic conditions will get “better” over the next six months, a decrease from 24.2 percent in June. 77.4 percent of survey respondents indicate they believe the U.S. economy will “stay the same” over the next six months, an increase from 69.7 percent the previous month. 9.7 percent believe economic conditions in the U.S. will worsen over the next six months, an increase from 6.1 percent in June.
In July, 45.2 percent of respondents indicate they believe their company will increase spending on business development activities during the next six months, an increase from 42.4 percent in June. 54.8 percent believe there will be “no change” in business development spending, a decrease from 57.6 percent the previous month. None believe there will be a decrease in spending, unchanged from last month.
Why an MCI-EFI?
Confidence in the U.S. economy and the capital markets is a critical driver to the equipment finance industry. Throughout history, when confidence increases, consumers, and businesses are more apt to acquire more consumer goods, equipment, and durables, and invest at prevailing prices. When confidence decreases, spending and risk-taking tend to fall. Investors are said to be confident when the news about the future is good and stock prices are rising.
Who participates in the MCI-EFI?
The respondents are comprised of a wide cross-section of industry executives, including large-ticket, middle-market and small-ticket banks, independents, and captive equipment finance companies. The MCI-EFI uses the same pool of 50 organization leaders to respond monthly to ensure the survey’s integrity. Since the same organizations provide the data from month to month, the results constitute a consistent barometer of the industry’s confidence.
How is the MCI-EFI designed?
The survey consists of seven questions and an area for comments, asking the respondents’ opinions about the following:
1. Current business conditions;
2. Expected product demand over the next four months;
3. Access to capital over the next four months;
4. Future employment conditions;
5. Evaluation of the current U.S. economy;
6. U.S. economic conditions over the next six months;
7. Business development spending expectations; and
8. Open-ended question for comment.
How may I access the MCI-EFI?
Survey results are posted on the Foundation website, https://www.leasefoundation.org/industry-resources/monthly-confidence-index/, included in the Foundation Forecast eNewsletter, and included in press releases. Survey respondent demographics and additional information about the MCI are also available at the link above.