Unseasonably heavy precipitation in Kansas, eastern Colorado

High pressure continued to persist over the eastern Pacific Ocean, forcing a split in the normal west to east upper-air flow for Pacific storm systems. As a result, storms bypassed the central West (e.g., California and the Great Basin), instead tracking northward into the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia, and southward across Baja California and the Southwest. This pattern has produced a very dry January and February in California, normally the two wettest months of the year, resulting in an expansion of short-term D0 and D1 that are impacting non-irrigated land and non-managed rivers. Fortunately, the statewide reservoir storage stood at 104% of average for this time of year.

Farther to the east, once these systems reached the Plains, Gulf moisture was entrained into them, generating widespread precipitation across the South and Southeast and mixed or frozen precipitation in more northern locations. The week’s greatest precipitation (1-4 inches) fell on the northern Cascades, parts of the Southwest (mostly Arizona), the central Plains (mainly Kansas), and from central Texas eastward across the lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys, the Southeast, and southern Appalachians. Little or no precipitation, however, fell on most of California, the Great Basin, and Intermountain West, northern Plains and upper Midwest, parts of the southern Plains, most of Florida, and the mid-Atlantic. Weekly temperatures averaged below normal in southwestern Alaska, the Northwest, Rockies, Plains, upper Midwest, Southeast, and New England. In contrast, above-normal readings were observed in eastern and southern Alaska, the Southwest, eastern Great Lakes region, mid-Atlantic, and along the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coasts.

South

Similar to last week, another storm system dropped moderate to heavy rain (1-4 inches, locally to 7) from central Texas eastward across northern Louisiana, central Mississippi, and into central Alabama and Georgia. Decent totals (0.5-2 inches) also fell on southwestern and northern Oklahoma, central and eastern Texas, and much of Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Mississippi. Little or no precipitation was reported in far western and southern Texas, the eastern half of Oklahoma, and extreme northwestern Arkansas. And like last week, 1- and a few 2-category improvements were made in central and southeastern Texas, while most of the D0 in southern Louisiana was alleviated. USGS stream flows have responded, with 7-day averaged values in the 75th to 90th percentiles in eastern Texas eastward. In contrast, where weekly totals were lower (less than 1.5 inches) and decent 60- to 90-day deficits remained, D0 was left. This included southeastern Louisiana and extreme southern Mississippi. A small portion of the D0 was removed in southwestern Oklahoma where 1-1.5 inches fell. Status-quo was decided for southern Texas even though it was mostly dry since major degradations were made last week there. The only change was the removal (downgrade) of a small D1area (to D2) in southwestern Starr County. USGS stream flows have also responded here, but the opposite way as 7-day averages were in the 10th to 25th percentiles. If it remains dry this week with low humidity and gusty winds (red flag warnings), potential deterioration is possible next week as reported impacts were on the rise.

Midwest

The past 30 days have seen mostly below-normal precipitation (except surpluses across far southern and eastern sections), with below-normal temperatures the past 14-days. With excess precipitation encompassing much of the Midwest the past 60- to 90-days, no D0 development was needed. Not surprisingly, USGS stream flows were near to much above-normal (more so at longer time periods) where the rivers were not frozen. In the upper Midwest, a decent snow cover blanketed the area. The drier weather was welcome in the Midwest, but they could also use some milder air—as long as it thaws the ground while gradually melts the snow.

High Plains

Much of the region was saw little or no precipitation with the exception of Kansas and eastern Colorado. Unseasonably heavy precipitation (1-3 inches) fell across much of Kansas and into Missouri, effectively erasing the two small D1 areas and D0 in south-central Kansas as surpluses now replaced deficits out to 90-days. Likewise, moderate precipitation (0.5-1.5 inches) in western Kansas and eastern Colorado (where February normally contributes to only 2-3% of the annual total) removed shortages out to 90 days, improving the D0-D2 by 1-category. In central Colorado, 0.5-1 inch of precipitation was enough to improve most indices to the normal range, thus D0 was removed in parts of Pueblo and Custer Counties. For D0 changes in Wyoming and Montana, please refer to the West write-up.