Climate change and agriculture: Decisions we make today set the stage for tomorrow

For nearly three decades, climate change has been a controversial topic. However, more data in recent years reveals the world is warming faster partially due to humans’ use of energy and the introduction of ever-increasing amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The inserted figure shows how the earth has warmed over time. This very complex problem requires complex solutions. I hope to shine some light on the fact that a warming planet impacts all of us, especially the agriculture business, so Americans need to embrace and lead change to make things better for future generations.

Fossil fuels are relatively cheap and very reliable sources of energy that have led to our prosperity and increased our quality of life tremendously. Unfortunately, a by-product of all the good fossil fuels generate is that they cause the planet to warm faster than normal. Making concrete, steel, and plastic accounts for 31% of annual CO2 production. Electricity is a close second at 27%, while the agriculture business of growing things (plants and animals, including making fertilizer), is third at 19%. New predictions show the earth warming 2 to 3 degrees Celsius (3.6 to 5.4F) by 2100 from today’s temperatures. This is actually an improvement from past projections. While this may not sound like much, it takes a lot of energy to warm the globe. We have only increased about 1 degree in over 100 years. This includes the recent 0.85 degrees since a NASA baseline from 1951 to 1980. Small increases have large effects, including longer droughts and more weather extremes. Best case, with large changes required in our behavior now and breakthrough technologies, we will increase another degree. Worst case, it will be two to three times that. The good news is that America is wealthy, and we can adapt. The bad news is it will still be costly and challenge us as a world leader. If we do nothing, it increases the probability of conflict from mass migrations and limited resources. If the U.S. fails to act and lead, we are not fulfilling our responsibility as a country still seen globally as that beacon of light for the rest of the world.

Farmers and ranchers are seeing the effects of climate change firsthand. They note more extremes, along with changing growing seasons. While warmer and shorter winters may lead to longer growing seasons, this changes the calculus for planting and harvest. Also, a shortened dormancy in the winter may lead to more damage from spring freezes. With global warming, cotton production in Kansas is on the rise, but new crops require investments of hundreds of thousands of dollars. Global warming requires Big Ag to continue working faster on genetically modified seeds that can thrive in varied growing seasons, more extreme temperatures, and longer drought cycles. Embracing these changes and finding new solutions will be necessary for the future. Regenerative agriculture, perennial crops, and new soil conservation techniques will also be instrumental. Will future farm products provide the required food and materials for a more insecure and demanding world? Product choice and methods of production on the land will continue to need modifications at an even faster rate to combat climate change. Adaptation is nothing new to our farmers. One example is going from nearly 100% conventional tillage in the 1970s to no-tillage efforts that enhance soil and crop yields. Chemical advancements, genetically modified crops, and new equipment technology help avoid disturbing the soil while still preventing weeds. Continued adaptation and seeking improved practices will be just as critical for farmers to thrive in the warmer future.

Kansas agriculture is on the front line and will continue to lead with advancements and future solutions. Additionally, we all play a part in finding solutions to fight climate change and adjust to its effects. If we elect to do nothing, by the end of the century, our kids and their kids will pay a steep price for the required adaptation, and costs of damages. However, taking reasonable actions now and embracing changes that come at a small cost to us will lessen the bill and risk for succeeding generations. While we make these small sacrifices, understand our ranchers and farmers will be engaging in major changes at great cost and risk to their operations. They are investing in their future survival in agriculture and our global survival. Our farmers and ranchers have historically adapted and will rise to this challenge, as we all need to. The world is counting on it.

—John Schwartz is an active-duty officer in the Air Force attending the National War College in Washington, D.C., and is a Pratt, Kansas, native.