Corn and soybean production is down from September, according to the report issued Oct. 12 by U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. At a forecast 15.1 bushels, corn production is down 1% from the previous forecast but up 10% from last year; soybean growers are expected to decrease their production 4% from 2022, forecast at 4.10 billion bushels.
Based on conditions as of Oct. 1, corn yields are expected to average 173 bushels per harvested acre, down 0.8 bushel from the previous forecast and down 0.4 bushel from 2022. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 87.1 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast.
Also based on conditions as of Oct. 1, soybean yields are expected to average 49.6 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushel from the previous forecast but unchanged from 2022. Area harvested for beans in the United States is forecast at 82.8 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast, but down 4% from 2022.
Exports down
The most recent weekly Grain Transportation Report by the USDA showed a decline in export demand for U.S. corn and soybeans from last year. In the largest decline of all grains, third quarter 2023 barged corn volumes headed to the Gulf totaled 1.5 million tons, 45% lower than last year and 63% lower than the five-year average. At 9.1 million tons, year-to-date corn volumes were down 32% from last year and down 38% from the 5-year average.
The USDA attributed the decline to lower export sales demand, due to Brazil’s strong corn crop and the strength of the U.S. dollar rather than to river conditions. From January to July, exports to China, the largest buyer of U.S. corn, were down 64%, and exports to Canada, the second largest buyer, were down 71%. The lower-than-normal export demand dampened barge rates, which didn’t begin to rise significantly until August, despite river conditions.
Despite an ongoing dispute between the U.S. and Mexico over GMO corn, more than half of all U.S. corn exports were destined for Mexico, which doesn’t depend on barges. Mexico’s corn imports from the U.S. are up 7% this year, according to the Grain Transportation Report. Meanwhile, at 1.8 million tons, soybean volumes were 31% lower than last year and 49% lower than the five-year average.
Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between Sept. 23 and Oct. 5 to gather information on expected yield as of Oct. 1. The objective yield surveys for corn, cotton, and soybeans were conducted in the major producing states that usually account for about 75% of U.S. production. Randomly selected plots were revisited to make current counts.
The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail, internet, and personal enumeration. Approximately 7,800 producers were contacted during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield.
The Crop Production report is published monthly and is available online at nass.usda.gov/Publications.
David Murray can be reached at [email protected].
