The recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report has a lowered beef, pork, broiler, and turkey production forecast for 2023. The report also had a forecast for dairy prices.
Beef production is lowered with reduced steer and heifer slaughter more than offsetting higher expected cow slaughter and higher average dressed weights in the fourth quarter. Pork production is lowered on lighter dressed weights in the fourth quarter, the report stated.
Broiler production is lowered as eggs set and chicks placed data point toward further production declines in the fourth quarter. Turkey production is lowered based on current hatchery and slaughter data.
Egg production is raised slightly from last month, as higher third quarter reported data more than offsets a reduced fourth quarter forecast.
Beef
For 2024, the beef production forecast is raised. Higher expected steer and heifer placements in the later part of 2023 and first part of 2024 will lead to higher marketings of fed cattle, particularly in the first half of 2024. In addition, cow and bull processing is raised from last month.
Beef imports for 2023 are raised on recent trade data and stronger expected imports from Australia in the fourth quarter.
For 2024, beef imports are raised based on higher expected imports from Australia due to tight U.S. beef supplies. Exports for 2023 are raised slightly based on reported data for the third quarter. Beef export forecasts for 2024 are unchanged.
Cattle price forecasts for 2023 and 2024 are unchanged although weaker prices in the first half of 2024 are offset by higher prices later in the year.
The report forecasts a steer price on an annual basis for the month of November 2024 at $185 per hundredweight.
Pork
Pork imports are raised, and exports are lowered for 2023 on observed data, but the forecasts are unchanged for 2024, the report stated.
The 2023 hog price forecast is lowered on prices to date. Lower hog price forecasts are carried into the first half of 2024.
The forecast price for barrows and gilts in November 2024 is $60 per hundredweight, which is up from $58.95 per hundredweight in the latest report.
Poultry
The pace of broiler production growth is reduced from last month. Turkey production is lowered as the sector responds to continued weakness in turkey markets, the report stated.
Broiler exports forecast for 2023 are lowered based on recent trade data, with the lowered outlook carrying over into the 2024 export forecast due to weaker international demand and tighter domestic supplies.
Turkey exports are raised for 2023 on current trade, but the forecast for 2024 is lowered on lower domestic production. The broiler price forecast for 2023 is lowered on recent data, but 2024 forecasts are raised with the reduction in expected production. The turkey price forecast for 2023 is lowered due to weak demand. The 2024 price forecast is also lowered as weak demand carries into the first part of the year.
Egg production was reduced, with reductions in the first half of the year more than offsetting increases in the second half.
Egg price forecasts for 2023 are raised on recent prices and strong demand expected ahead of the holiday season. The price forecast for 2024 is unchanged with stronger prices early in the year offset by lowered forecasts later.
Broilers and turkeys in November 2024 are projected at 124 and 137 cents per pound, respectively. The price of eggs was forecast at 145 cents per dozen.
Dairy
The milk production forecast for 2023 is reduced from last month as milk cow numbers were revised lower in the most recent Milk Production report, and the lower estimated numbers are carried into the fourth quarter forecast. Growth in milk per cow is also slowed in the fourth quarter with slower-than-expected growth for the third quarter reported in the Milk Production report. The forecast for 2024 is reduced as the lower forecasts of milk cows and milk per cow for late 2023 are carried into the next year.
Fat basis imports for 2023 are unchanged from last month, as lower-than-expected imports in the third quarter are largely offset by expectations of higher butter and butter fat imports in the fourth quarter. Higher expected imports of butter and cheese support a higher fat basis import forecast for 2024.
Skim-solids basis imports are lowered for 2023 reflecting lower imports of milk proteins. For 2024, the skim-solids basis import forecast is unchanged. Exports in 2023 are lowered on a fat basis with lower expected sales of butter and milkfats, whole milk powder, and whey but higher lactose shipments are reflected in a higher skim-solids export forecast. For 2024, lowered expectations of butter sales more than offset stronger cheese exports and the fat basis export forecast is reduced.
However, higher expected nonfat dry milk and cheese exports support a higher skim-solids export forecast. Recent gains in butter prices have eroded more rapidly than previously expected and the butter price forecast for 2023 is reduced. Strength in whey demand supports a higher price forecast. The cheese price is unchanged and the NDM price is raised to reflect current prices.
The Class III price is raised on a higher whey price, but the Class IV price is lowered as a weaker butter price more than offsets slightly higher NDM. For 2024, the price forecast for butter is reduced as prices continue to soften from late-2023 levels but cheese, NDM, and whey prices are raised as lower milk production constrains production of those products. The Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised on higher cheese, whey and NDM prices although the lowered butter price constrains the level of increase in the Class IV price. The 2023 all milk price forecast is unchanged from last month at $20.70 per hundredweight while the 2024 all milk price is raised to $20.80 per hundredweight.
The report is available at www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde1123.pdf.
Dave Bergmeier can be reached at 620-227-1822 or [email protected].
