Storm systems brought significant precipitation and drought relief to broad areas in the central Rockies, central and southern Plains, Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley, Lower and Middle Ohio Valley, and the South Atlantic Region.
Meanwhile, subnormal precipitation and some unseasonable warmth led to deterioration in dryness and drought conditions in portions of the Southwest, southern and western Texas, the interior Southeast, the northeastern Gulf Coast, the central and southern Appalachians, the mid-Atlantic region, the Northeast. Excessive precipitation totals fell on some areas. From central South Carolina through much of southeastern Georgia, amounts of 4 inches to locally a foot of rain were reported.
Similar totals fell on central Louisiana, a band through central and north-central Texas, small parts of the Lower Ohio Valley, and orographically-favored areas in the Northwest. In addition, a broad area covering the eastern half of Colorado and adjacent areas in New Mexico and the central High Plains recorded 2 to 4 inches of precipitation, much of which fell as snow in the middle and higher elevations. A few scattered sites reported 3 to 4.5 feet of snow, mainly in the higher elevations of Colorado.
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. (Map courtesy of NDMC.)
South
Like the southeastern region, the South region experienced highly variable rainfall. Heavy precipitation—in some areas for the second consecutive week—soaked a swath from Louisiana and eastern Texas northward through much of the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley and the Tennessee Valley. A broad swath reaching as far west as central Arkansas recorded at least 1.5 inches in most places. This resulted in reductions in dryness and drought severity across affected areas of the Lower Mississippi Valley and eastern Texas. Some 2-class improvements were imposed in a small part of both southwestern Louisiana and an area straddling southwestern most Mississippi and adjacent southeastern Louisiana.
Farther west, another area of heavy precipitation accompanied a frontal passage in a swath from central Texas into the central Red River (south) Valley, where totals reached 4 to 8 inches along the axis of heaviest amounts. To the north, heavy precipitation associated with a pair of potent upper-level low pressure systems dropped over 2 inches on a large part of central and western Oklahoma and much of the Texas Panhandle. There was localized totals exceeding 4 inches in the eastern Texas Panhandle northward to the Oklahoma/Kansas border. There was also a patch of heavy rainfall to the east across portions of eastern Oklahoma, where isolated amounts peaked at around 3 inches.
Dryness and drought affecting these areas were significantly eased, with a couple patches of 2-class improvements in north-central and northeastern Oklahoma. In stark contrast, little or no precipitation was observed from parts of southeastern Oklahoma southward through Deep South Texas, and across western Texas as well. Dryness and drought worsened in some of the areas, with the most widespread deterioration noted in western Texas.
The broad area of exceptional drought (D4, the most intense category) expanded there to cover most or all of eastern Hudspeth, Culberson, western Reeves, Jeff Davis, Presidio, and Brewster Counties. Also, D3 (extreme drought) also expanded to cover most of the remainder of the Big Bend of Texas.
Midwest
Totals of over an inch stretched into parts of southern and eastern Missouri. Most other areas recorded several tenths of an inch of precipitation, but little or none fell across the northwestern two-thirds of Minnesota, most of central Iowa, and near the Mississippi River from northern Missouri into southern Wisconsin.
This moisture resulted in a fairly large area of improvement stretching through the dry parts of central and southern Missouri, in addition to portions of southeastern Minnesota. In the areas receiving limited rainfall, dryness and drought has not been as quick to worsen as in some other parts of the country, likely due to relatively cooler temperatures.
High Plains
A potent 500-hPa low triggered widespread heavy precipitation over southern half of the region, except along the eastern fringe, while amounts were limited to several tenths of an inch at most farther north. Between 2 and 4 inches of precipitation fell on a large swath covering the eastern half of Colorado, most of central and western Kansas, and adjacent Nebraska.
In nearby areas, amounts ranging from a few tenths of an inch to a couple of inches were observed over the western half of Colorado amounts of 0.5 inch to approaching 2 inches in spots was observed across southeastern Wyoming, most other areas in Nebraska, and eastern Kansas. Moderate amounts fell on a swath across the central and southwestern Dakotas the remainder of this region reported little or no precipitation, as well as most of Wyoming.
In some of the higher elevations of Colorado, this precipitation fell as heavy snow, with a few locations reporting snow piling up 3 to 4.5 feet deep (50 to 54 inches buried Fort Garland CO while 44 to 47 inches were reported near La Veta, Elbert, and Trinidad CO). All of this resulted in a large area of improvement depicted over southern and western Kansas, most of northern and eastern Colorado, part of southwestern Nebraska, and a few spots in eastern Wyoming. There were a few areas of 2-class improvement in southeastern Colorado, northwestern Kansas, and the fringes of south-central and southeastern Kansas.
Elsewhere, due to relatively cool weather, the dry week didn’t engender much deterioration, with most of these locations remaining unchanged from last week. One exception was in a small patch of northeastern Nebraska and adjacent South Dakota, where a new patch of extreme drought (D3) was identified.
West
Heavy precipitation in northeastern New Mexico, with snow reported in some of the higher elevations, produced areas of improvement to dryness and drought. A few high spots in New Mexico reported near 3 feet of snow, including locations near Las Vegas, New Mexico, and Folsom, New Mexico. The only other area of improvement in the West region was in eastern Washington.
Normal conditions prevailed across Palau. Palau IAP (Airai) and Koror reported 1.23 and 0.57 inches of rain this week. Palau IAP (Airai) received 2.56 inches of rain last week, allowing the island to remain free of drought.
Looking ahead
During the next five days (Nov. 14 to 18), parts of the northern Intermountain West are expected to receive over an inch of precipitation, with 2 to locally 4 inches forecast across the Idaho Panhandle. A low- pressure system and trailing front should trigger another round of heavy precipitation in the central and southern Great Plains from central Texas northward into southeastern Nebraska and the middle Mississippi Valley, with 1.5 to locally 4 inches anticipated from central and east-central Kansas southward through the Red River (south) Valley and adjacent northern Texas.
Moderate amounts should fall on the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In contrast, little or no precipitation is expected across much of the southern Texas, the northern Plains, the central and southern Rockies, and the Southwest.
The Climate Prediction Center’s six- to 10-day outlook (Nov. 19 to 23) features enhanced chances for both above-normal precipitation and temperatures across the Upper Midwest and across most areas east of the Mississippi River. Subnormal precipitation seems more likely across Texas and adjacent locations as well as the western Rockies and most of the Intermountain West. Below normal temperatures are favored across the central and southern Plains and adjacent Mississippi Valley, the Rockies, and the Intermountain West.
Richard Tinker is with the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and Climate Prediction Center.
