The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, released Dec. 10, adjusted the 2024-25 United States corn outlook for greater corn used for ethanol, larger exports, and lower ending stocks.
Corn used to produce ethanol was raised by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion bushels, based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for the month of November. These data imply that corn used for ethanol during the September to November quarter was the highest since 2017, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
In addition, corn exports were raised by 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion bushels. With no other use changes, corn ending stocks were reduced 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers remained unchanged at $4.10 per bushel.
Corn exports for 2024-25 were raised for the United States and Canada but lowered for the European Union. Corn imports were higher for Bangladesh, the EU, Iran, and Mexico but cut for China. Foreign corn ending stocks were reduced based on declines for China, the EU, and Indonesia. At 296.4 million tons, global corn stocks were down 7.7 million tons.
Oilseeds slightly up
Total U.S. oilseed production for 2024-25 was forecast at 131.2 million tons, up slightly due to an increase for cottonseed. Soybean supply and use projections remained unchanged. Soybean oil production was raised from last month on a higher extraction rate.
With strong export commitments to date, exports were raised 500 million pounds to 1.1 billion. The estimated food, feed, and other industrial use of soybean oil was reduced 200 million pounds, leaving soybean oil ending stocks down slightly and similar to the 2023-24 marketing year.
The U.S. season-average soybean price was forecast at $10.20 per bushel, down $0.60 from the previous month. The soybean meal price forecast was reduced $20 to $300 per short ton. The soybean oil price forecast remained unchanged at 43 cents per pound.
Global oilseed production for 2024-25 was raised this month mainly on higher soybean production, partly offset by lower rapeseed oil. Soybean production was raised by 1.7 million tons to 427.1 million tons on higher area for Argentina and Bolivia and higher yields for Canada. Canola production was reduced 1.1 million tons, mainly on a lower yield for Canada based on the latest Statistics Canada report. Global sunflower seed production remained nearly unchanged, with higher production for Ukraine and Russia mostly offset by a lower crop for the European Union.
The global 2024-25 soybean outlook includes higher production, exports, crush, and ending stocks. Exports were raised for Canada and Bolivia on higher supplies, and imports were raised for Algeria and Zimbabwe. Crush was raised 1 million tons to 41 million tons for Argentina, leading to higher exports of soybean meal and oil. Soybean meal imports were raised for the EU, Algeria, Iran, and Venezuela.
Global soybean oil exports were raised 0.6 million tons to 12.6 million on higher exports for Argentina, Brazil, and the U.S. Higher shipments of soybean oil were offset by lower exports of palm oil, down 1.4 million tons to 46.6 million tons, due to reduced supplies and lower production for Indonesia in 2023-24 and Malaysia in 2024-25.
Global vegetable oil ending stocks were reduced to 27.9 million tons, down 2% from last month and 7% from 2023-24.
Wheat exports increase
This month’s 2024-25 U.S. wheat outlook was for slightly larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, increased exports, and lower ending stocks. Imports were raised by 5 million bushels to 125 million on a strong pace for Hard Red Spring. Exports were raised 25 million bushels to 850 million. White wheat exports were increased by 15 million bushels to 210 million, on stronger-than-expected sales and shipments to East Asian markets.
Exports for Soft Red Winter and Hard Red Spring were both raised 5 million bushels. Projected wheat ending stocks were reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million, but still up 14% from last year. The season-average farm price remained unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.
David Murray can be reached at [email protected].
