Farm country mostly supported Donald Trump’s election, but soy growers have painful memories of the tariff wars with China unleashed during the first Trump term.
“For more than 42 years, U.S. soy has collaborated in China, nurturing a strong trade relationship,” Jim Sutter, CEO of the U.S. Soybean Export Council, recently told the High Plains Journal.
“As we saw with the 2018 trade war, a renewed trade conflict could likewise recreate supply chain reliability concerns, tarnishing the superior reputation we’ve worked so hard to build. I firmly believe China not only wants but needs the quality, sustainably produced supply U.S. soy offers. China continues to pursue innovation and green development and is answering its people’s increasing need for such products. The long-term relationship between U.S. and China agriculture has clearly proven to be a win-win collaboration for global nutrition security and a greener, more resilient supply chain.”
Indeed, despite trade tensions and China’s own tariffs against U.S. ag products, Chinese buyers made a late-season surge of U.S. soybean buys last year. According to Reuters, China imported a record 105.03 million metric tons of soybeans last year. Its import of U.S. soybeans rose 6.5% from 2023, according to Reuters’ calculations of official customs data. Some of that buying may have been stockpiling as a hedge against new tariffs that may be introduced by the incoming Trump administration.
That surge doesn’t mean that soy growers are putting all their beans in one bin. “While U.S. soy remains America’s No. 1 agricultural export, its distribution has evolved and diversified,” Sutter said.
“USSEC’s team of experts in 80-plus countries has been working to showcase the value of U.S. soy. Less than 40% of U.S. soy exports went to China in marketing year 2023-24, down from a high of roughly 60% five years ago. We’ve also seen significant diversification in other world regions. In Egypt, Africa’s third most populous country, U.S. soybean imports increased by 43%, with an average annual value of $845.03 million. And in Venezuela, improved bilateral trade relations have positively impacted U.S. soy. The country is now one of the top 10 importers of U.S. soybean meal. U.S. soy enjoys over 90% of market share when looking at all soy imports to Venezuela.”
That Venezuelan import figure of U.S. soy was reached despite Brazil being Venezuela’s close neighbor.
Global soybean production for 2024-25 was forecast at 425.4 million metric tons in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, lowered from previous estimates based on production in the U.S. and India. “After the 2024 harvest, USSEC board member Reggie Strickland commented that on his diversified North Carolina farm, soybeans were the only crop that exceeded yield expectations,” Sutter said.
“We’ve heard similar stories from other soybean farmers,” Sutter said. “Based on this, I anticipate soybeans will continue to play a key part in U.S. farmers’ production strategies. The U.S. will continue to provide a reliable supply of quality soy for our global customers.”
“U.S. soy growers are optimistic about the year ahead. USDA projects global soybean demand to reach 346.2 million metric tons for marketing year 2024-25, a 4.3% increase year-over-year. U.S. soybean meal exports set a record for marketing year 2023-24 based on increased supply, strong demand, competitive prices and nutritional advantage.
“USSEC continues to work with importers and exporters to differentiate, elevate preference and attain market access for the use of U.S. soy for human consumption, aquaculture and livestock feed in more than 80 countries internationally.”
All of the changes in the world and the trade environment have left Sutter convinced of one thing: “USSEC’s work is more important now than ever. We continue our efforts to nurture the strong export pace, against a backdrop of growing global demand, greater available supply and U.S. soy’s exceptional value, sustainability and nutritional bundle. In uncertain times, USSEC remains a stalwart champion of U.S. soy to maximize the utilization, value and access to markets of U.S. soy around the world.”
“With the world’s population on the rise, and in turn its need or consistent, reliable, high-quality sources of protein, U.S. soy is uniquely positioned to sustainably meet that demand as a solution toward global food security.”
Sutter bids U.S. soy growers not to forget their sustainability advantage. “I know some producers are tired of hearing this word (sustainable) as it stirs up negative connotations in their mind. My point to them is that the U.S. is the world leader in sustainable production, and it is a competitive advantage for U.S. soy in many markets where consumers want to know where their soy came from and how it was produced. When we first started getting questions about this several years ago, I was skeptical and started playing defense; over time it has changed and become an offensive weapon. So, my thanks to U.S. soy farmers for making this possible!”
David Murray can be reached at [email protected].
