Looking ahead at five things to watch in a busy, chaotic 2025
Ever since the November elections, it’s been clear that the pace and variety of news has been picking up, and we don’t expect that to change as we head into a very busy 2025.
President-elect Donald Trump has made it clear that he plans to hit the ground running and, in many ways, has been doing so since the November elections. He’ll be able to really kick into high gear with many of his campaign pledges upon his inauguration on Jan. 20. Here are five things to watch as the year unfolds.
Presidential nominees
When President Trump was first elected in 2016, it was a surprise to many and even his own team didn’t appear to be prepared to review and select all of his top tier political appointees. A president is responsible for about 4,000 political appointments, 1,200 of which require Senate confirmation, according to the Center for Presidential Transitions.
During the first 100 days in office of Trump’s first term, the Senate confirmed only 28 of Trump’s nominees, compared to 67 of President Barack Obama’s appointees and 34 of President George W. Bush’s.
Bush caught up quickly during that first year, eventually confirming 520 nominees, compared to about 320 for Trump and 460 for Obama. Trump didn’t nominate Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue until just before his inauguration, and he was not confirmed by the Senate until April 24. Now, Trump is on a much faster track with nominations. As I wrote in my last column, he has already nominated Brooke Rollins to be secretary of agriculture and recently picked Stephen Vaden as his nominee to be deputy secretary. Expect many more selections to be coming before Jan. 20.
MAHA moments
Of course, it’s not only the USDA nominees that could impact agriculture in 2025. We’ll be keeping a close eye on several other Trump nominees, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who was selected to lead the Department of Health and Human Services, Rep. Lee Zelden at the Environmental Protection Agency, Interior Secretary and Energy “Czar” Doug Burgum and Tom Homan as the next border “czar.”
For those in the agricultural community, Kennedy has already generated some angst because of his previous policy positions about livestock production, crop protection chemicals and advocacy for organic production systems. Many lawmakers and farm groups have expressed concern about Kennedy Jr.’s prior statements criticizing food and agriculture, particularly proposals to restrict pesticide use.
But after meeting Kennedy, Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kansas, said the two share the same goals on agriculture, and the farm community should be relieved. “I think that American agriculture is going to be relieved when I hear from his own words to talk about this,” Marshall said after his meeting.
Marshall also announced the creation of the Congressional Make America Healthy Again Caucus, a movement which has been endorsed by Kennedy.
Immigration and deportation
President-elect Trump and his nominee to be the border “czar,” Tom Homan, have promised to clamp down on illegal immigration and to start mass deportations on the first day of his presidency. Agricultural employers are watching warily to see exactly how this might be carried out.
In a recent interview with Fox and Friends, Homan emphasized that Trump’s priority is “public safety threats and national security threats.” He also said Immigration and Customs Enforcement will resume workplace raids. Homan has also said that the “catch and release” program, which enables illegal immigrants who cross U.S. borders to stay in the country as long as they are in the process of applying for asylum, will end.
Steve Obert, executive director of Indiana Dairy Producers, said he has seen figures showing that as many as 80% of dairy farm workers are immigrants, though he doesn’t know how many lack proper documentation. He hopes the new administration will push for comprehensive immigration and workforce reform instead of trying to deport what is estimated to be at least 14 million immigrants, including approximately 1 million in the agricultural sector.
“I think there is some of that prevailing thought that’s floating around, as we try to be optimistic” moving forward, Obert said. “This has to be fixed comprehensively.”
Trade and tariffs
President-elect Trump is a big fan of tariffs, but lawmakers and ag groups are carefully watching to see how many he will actually implement versus use as a negotiation tool. During the campaign, he pledged a 60% tariff on all goods coming from China and an across-the-board 10% on all goods imported from any country.
Trump hasn’t said since the election how he would carry out those campaign promises, but on Nov. 25 he announced he would sign a series of executive orders on his first day in office to impose new duties of 25% on all imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% added tariffs on goods from China. He said those tariffs would remain in effect until the countries take steps to prevent the shipment of fentanyl to the United States from within their borders and, in Mexico and Canada’s case, to tighten border security and curtail crossing from undocumented migrants.
The chairman of the House Ways and Means subcommittee that handles trade policy, Rep. Adrian Smith, R-Nebraska, says he’s concerned about the U.S. becoming embroiled in tit-for-tat tariff escalations that could lead to ag producers facing new duties. During a recent event, he added that he is “not a fan of tariffs,” but acknowledged that it “needs to be a tool in the toolbox” of U.S. trade policy. Smith also expressed optimism that the election of President-elect Trump will lead to a “more vigorous” trade agenda than Joe Biden.
Congressional agenda
Shortly before leaving town for the holidays, lawmakers cleared a stopgap spending bill that includes $21 billion in ag disaster assistance, $10 billion in market relief for farmers and a one-year extension of the 2018 farm bill. Republicans will control both the House and Senate in 2025 by rather narrow majorities, and they can afford few defections if they hope to pass Trump’s ambitious agenda for tax cuts, immigration and border control, repealing the Inflation Reduction Act and more.
If you watched any of the ups and downs of that December legislative process in the House, which also threatened a government shutdown, you will be somewhat prepared for the political rollercoasters ahead.
Getting a farm bill passed in early 2025 is a top priority for leaders of the House and Senate ag committees. As we’ve witnessed, the GOP controlled House is not exactly working in lockstep, as concerns about the need for deficit reduction have grown, and more members have questioned House Speaker Mike Johnson’s leadership.
Trump tried to quell any revolt by recently weighing in with support for Johnson, describing him on social media as a “good, hard-working, religious man” and emphasizing that, “Mike has my complete and total endorsement.” Even that doesn’t guarantee that he can keep Johnson in place or the narrow majority of House Republicans working toward advancing his agenda. Stay tuned as we head into a busy 2025!
Editor’s note: Sara Wyant is publisher of Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc., www.Agri-Pulse.com.
