At a recent press call-out farmers and small business owners detailed their frustrations with the substantial costs of President Donald Trump’s tariff uncertainty on their supply chains and planning.
Asked by a reporter from a public radio station how many of them voted for Trump and whether they would again, two presenters said they voted for him for many reasons and would do so again, despite their unhappiness with his trade moves. So the questioner didn’t get his “gotcha” moment.
The just-signed Big Beautiful Bill includes substantial support for producers. Its farm provisions were praised by most farm and ag groups. It’s obvious the Trump team doesn’t want to abandon farmers—even if most farmers prefer to make their money in the markets.
Trump sincerely believes in the benefits of tariffs. While tariffs are indeed mercantilist, China’s own mercenary and predatory state-directed mercantilism has taken the option of a genuinely free-trade world off the table. Many American free traders reluctantly get that, even if they don’t like it. The Treasury Department just announced a June budget surplus, the first monthly surplus since 2017, thanks in part to tariff revenues (aided by calendar adjustments).
But those revenues are paid by businesses that import as well as export—like the Kansas City brewer who imports Italian glass bottles or steel and aluminum from overseas for cans, or the St. Louis craft whisky maker whose deals in France and South Korea were recently cancelled due to tariff uncertainty. Trump has moved the tariff needle to the point where across-the-board tariffs of 10%—unthinkable just a short time ago—might be accepted as a best-case outcome that allows us to move on—if they only remain stable and predictable.
Another president might stand pat and take the win. But Trump reaches for the tariff button when he is frustrated by non-trade issues, such as with his newly threatened tariffs on Canada over alleged failure to control fentanyl smuggling (which according to all available evidence is very low from Canada) or on Brazil due to how it treats its ex-president.
Trump’s threatened 50% tariffs on copper imports are a case in point. As the Wall Street Journal points out, the U.S. does not depend on adversaries for its copper; it gets most of it from Chile, Canada and Mexico, with whom we have trade agreements already in place. Copper tariffs will hurt U.S. industries that need copper but won’t fix the permitting and regulatory “morass” that makes U.S. copper smelters take an average of five years to get up and running, or copper mines an average of 29 years. Those fixes will take longer and require action by Congress.
The small businesses stress that it’s the zig-zagging and uncertainty that are hurting them, even more than the tariffs themselves. We haven’t had the tariff recession that some economists predicted. But if tariff uncertainty continues, it’s the issue most likely to erode support among otherwise-strong Trump supporters.
Small businesses supply most new jobs in our economy. They don’t have huge capital reserves to take advantage of tariff arbitrage. They have to consider contractors, suppliers, creditors and customers months in advance. If tariff uncertainty forces them to lay off employees, or even drives them out of business, the ripples will indeed spread throughout the economy. These producers, proprietors, founders and innovators (including farmers) are capitalist true believers who put their lives, fortunes and families’ future on the line for their dreams.
They deserve the certainty and stability that will allow them to plan, adjust, grow and provide jobs for a growing American economy. Please, Mr. President, take a page from your own book and give it to them.
David Murray can be reached at [email protected].
