The future of American beef

David Murray

For generations, raising cattle has been more than a livelihood; it’s been a way of life. Livestock prices are at record highs today.

But that way of life is having a hard time attracting new entrants, or even inspiring heirs to long-term ranching families.

Herd numbers are at their lowest in decades. The average rancher is pushing 60. Those who remain are squeezed between drought, rising input costs, volatile markets, and ever-increasing regulatory and environmental pressures.

Drought has been the single biggest force thinning the herd in recent years. Persistent dry conditions across the High Plains have depleted forage, forced herd liquidations and driven up the cost of supplemental feed although drought-related pressures have eased.

Feed, fuel, fertilizer, fencing, veterinary care—everything producers need has surged in price. Meanwhile, the cattle market remains volatile. Young people considering this line of work see the risk and the debt required to buy land, cattle, and equipment, and too often they walk away.

Then there’s consolidation. The Big Four meatpacking giants continue to control more than 80% of beef processing in the United States, leaving ranchers with little leverage in price discovery and few outlets for selling cattle. Even when consumer beef prices climb at the grocery store, producers don’t always share in the benefit.

Regulation and public scrutiny are another challenge. From water use to grazing rights to greenhouse gas emissions, cattle operations face increasing oversight and criticism. Some stems from misinformation, but some reflects real demand for stewardship. Producers are asked to prove sustainability at every turn, often without clear guidance or resources.

Federal safety nets—whether better drought insurance, disaster aid, or fairer lending options—need to more accessible to working ranch families. Programs that help young producers access land and credit are essential if we want generational turnover.

A more competitive marketplace would help. Greater transparency in cattle pricing, regional processing infrastructure, and support for independent packers can give ranchers alternatives and restore balance in the supply chain. Investment in small and mid-sized facilities would strengthen local economies and reduce bottlenecks when major plants shut down.

Better grazing practices, improved genetics, methane-reducing feed additives, and water-efficient systems are making headway. All of these can help producers reduce costs and environmental impacts. Many ranchers are already leaders in conservation, but they need recognition, incentives, and technical support.

One way to move forward is to build more direct relationships with consumers and retailers. Pioneering direct-to-consumer meat marketer Butcher Box started with 100% Australian grass-fed beef. Today about 25% of Butcher Box’s steaks now come from American producers.

A more competitive marketplace would help. Greater transparency in cattle pricing, regional processing infrastructure, and support for independent packers can give ranchers alternatives and restore balance in the supply chain. Investment in small and mid-sized facilities, which has occurred in the past four years, can strengthen local economies and reduce bottlenecks when major plants shut down.

The cattle business has never been easy, and its lifecycles mean slower recovery from dips in the cycle. Stewardship has always been at the heart of ranching. Let’s hope enough policymakers see the need for continuing to support American cattle ranching.

David Murray can be reached at [email protected].