Can farmers’ patience outlast Trump’s re-election?

In his last few rallies, President Donald Trump has praised farmers’ and ranchers’ patience as a plethora of retaliatory tariffs have kicked in against them.

According to a new survey, however, it seems that patience is wearing a bit thin.

Farm Futures recently published a poll indicating support for the president is eroding, primarily over the trade issue.

The online poll of 924 farmers showed that 60 percent of farmers would vote for the president if the election were held today. That’s down from the 75 percent support Trump received from growers in the 2016 election.

While 24 percent said they would not vote for Trump’s re-election, 17 percent were unsure. Only 78 percent of those who voted for the president in 2016 said they would still vote for him today. Not surprisingly, none of the producers surveyed who voted for Hillary Clinton would switch sides today.

“Trade seems to be the sticking point for the president’s wavering supporters because most farmers give Trump high marks in other areas,” said Farm Futures.

That includes support on regulatory relief and immigration issues.

For example, 86 percent said Trump’s move to reduce regulation is good for their farm. The 42 percent who voted for Clinton even supported Trump on that effort. Trump received 90 percent approval marks from those who voted for him in 2016 on immigration policy. Clinton supporters put up a 94 percent disapproval rating on the same topic.

More than two-thirds of those polled said Trump hadn’t done enough to support the biofuels industry.

Only 8 percent of all growers voiced support for the president’s statement that “trade wars are good and easy to win,” with 40 percent believing “President Trump’s actions on trade have done permanent damage to agriculture,” Farm Futures said.

Only 14 percent said tariffs are good for their farm’s profits.

The poll listed no margin of error in its data, but its size offers a snapshot of how producers are thinking. That is, they are deeply polarized from much of the urban America they feed and clothe.

The data does offer Republicans something to worry about and it’s something I’ve mentioned many times before: It often doesn’t matter the party, it’s the candidate that counts.

As you dig into the data Farm Futures has created, you can see that a good, pro-trade, lower regulation candidate can win the election. A little independent thinking could go a long way in boosting hopes for Democrats and send a shiver down the spines of Republicans who are too willing to bow to Trump on every issue.

On the other hand, it could make vulnerable Republicans (and there’s lots of them this election cycle) gain a spine and say no to the Trump tariff plan, which has caused GOP members to take a few tongue lashings from constituents at August town halls and listening sessions.

With the Chinese and Canadians willing to wait out Trump and turn the screws further on American farmers, it will be interesting to see if a new independent streak emerges from farm dependent Republicans over trade or if independent-minded Democrats can stake a claim to some of those seats in November.

As always, expect the unexpected.

Larry Dreiling can be reached at 785-628-1117 or [email protected].