As spring arrived, parts of the plains were still in dire need of moisture.
Through the first half of March, drought conditions continued to worsen from the Texas Panhandle into the western half of Oklahoma and into southern Kansas. Less than normal precipitation has continued in those areas in the past months. Near and in the Texas Panhandle, winter wheat that had not been irrigated was listed as almost a total loss, according to drought.gov. Around mid-March, ongoing drought conditions prompted Kansas Gov. Jeff Colyer to issue a drought declaration for all counties in Kansas, listing them under either emergency, warning or watch status.
Drought conditions are expected to persist or develop in the next few months for mostly the western halves of Texas and Oklahoma along with central to western Kansas.
Unfortunately, expected precipitation trends for some of those areas will not favor improvement to the drought situation. For the next month, southern to western Texas should see precipitation below the 30-year average for April. Above average precipitation should fall in the northern plains during April.
The next few months will likely bring below average precipitation for Texas and a majority of Oklahoma. In contrast, the northern plains are expected to see above normal precipitation in the coming months.
For April, much of the southern United States should see above normal temperatures while the northern plains are forecast to experience temperatures averaging out below seasonal norms.
Looking even further out, temperatures should trend above normal for the next three months from Texas into the southern half of Nebraska.
La Niña, which has been in control recently, is showing signs of winding down. This is typical for both La Niña and El Niño events. Both tend to peak from October to February. We can see the changes happening recently in both observed atmospheric and oceanic conditions. The rain patterns over the central Pacific and Indonesia began to show some changes. Equatorial subsurface ocean temperatures also trended above normal recently. Although La Niña continues to show signs of weakening, we still must take into account its residual impacts when considering long-term trends. Looking ahead, ENSO Neutral conditions of neither La Niña nor El Niño are expected to return later this spring and continue through at least summer.
I’m always keeping an eye to the sky (and the weather patterns), so stay tuned for May’s update.
Regina Bird grew up on a farm near Belleville, Kansas. The views from the farm helped spur her interest in weather. She is a meteorologist for NTV and KFXL in central Nebraska. Follow her on Twitter: @ReginaBirdWX.
