Corn yield estimates were slightly up, and soybean yields were slightly down in the Oct. 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
The 2024-25 United States corn outlook was for smaller supplies, larger exports and reduced ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks were 52 million bushels lower based on the Grain Stocks report. Corn production was forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up 17 million from last month on a 0.2-bushel increase in yield to 183.8 bushels per acre. Harvested area for grain was unchanged at 82.7 million acres.
Total corn use was raised to 15 billion bushels, reflecting greater exports, while ending stocks were cut by 58 million bushels to 2 billion. The season-average corn price stayed at $4.10 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2024-25 was forecast at 2.3 million tons lower, to 1.5 billion. Foreign corn production was also lowered, with declines for Ukraine, Egypt, Russia and the Philippines partly offset by an increase for India. Ukraine and Russia production estimates were lowered based on harvest results so far, while India’s were higher as a reduction in area was more than offset by a higher yield forecast.
Corn imports were reduced for China and Iran but raised for Egypt and the Philippines. Foreign corn ending stocks were reduced slightly to 255.8 million tons, mostly reflecting a reduction for China that is partly offset by increases for Argentina and Mexico.
Lower soybean production, yields
U.S. oilseed production for 2024-25 was forecast at 134.4 million tons, down 0.3 million tons from last month. Lower soybean, cottonseed, peanut and sunflower seed production was partly offset by higher canola production. Soybean production was forecast at 4.6 billion bushels, down 4 million bushels on lower yields. Harvested area was unchanged at 86.3 million acres. The soybean yield was projected at 53.1 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushels from the September forecast.
With lower production partly offset by slightly higher beginning stocks, supplies were lowered by 2 million bushels to 4.9 billion bushels. With no change to exports and crush, ending stocks remained unchanged from last month at 550 million bushels.
Cotton changes showed hurricane effects
NASS reduced U.S. all-cotton production estimates by about 300,000 bales to 14.2 million, reflecting the damage from Hurricane Helene. Georgia and North Carolina accounted for much of the reduction as high winds and heavy rain pummeled open bolls.
Some other states showed partly offsetting gains. The national all-cotton yield estimate was reduced 18 pounds from last month to 789 pounds per harvested acre. Domestic mill use was reduced by 100,000 bales to 1.8 million due to the latest reported mill activity. U.S. exports were reduced by 300,000 bales to 11.5 million, reflecting weaker global import demand and lower production for 2024-25.
David Murray can be reached at [email protected].
