March 8 WASDE shows higher ending stocks, few changes for corn, wheat, soybeans

(HPJ Calendar photo by Barbara Austin of St. John, Kansas.)

The March 8 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates had few adjustments from the previous month. The United States wheat outlook was unchanged in supplies and domestic use, with lower exports and higher ending stocks.

Wheat exports were reduced by 15 million bushels to 710 million, with reductions for Soft Red Winter and Hard Red Winter. Ending stocks, raised by an equivalent amount to 673 million bushels, were 18% higher than last year’s at this time.

The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger supplies, consumption, and trade with reduced stocks. Supplies were projected to increase by 0.8 million tons to 1,057.8 million, primarily on higher government production estimates for Australia, Russia, and Argentina,  partly offset by reductions for the EU and Serbia.

Global consumption was raised by 1.5 million tons to 799.0 million, mainly on higher feed and residual use for the EU, Kazakhstan, and Indonesia. World trade was raised by 1.4m tons to 212.1m on higher exports by Ukraine, Australia, and Turkey. Projected 2023/24 global ending stocks were lowered 0.6 million tons to 258.8m–the lowest since 2015/16.

Not much changed in the 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook relative to last month. Global coarse grain production for 2023/24 was forecast 2.7 million tons lower, at 1,507.4m tons. The foreign coarse grain outlook was for reduced production, larger trade, and smaller ending stocks relative to last month.  

Higher corn exports for Ukraine, Argentina

Foreign corn production was forecast lower with declines for South Africa, Ukraine, Mexico, Venezuela, and Russia that were partly offset by increases for Argentina and Syria. South Africa showed lower yield prospects. Mexico was cut based on expectations of lower winter corn area. Ukraine and Russia were reduced based on reported harvest results to date, while Argentina was raised based on higher expected area.

Major global trade changes included higher corn exports for Ukraine and Argentina, but reductions for South Africa and India. Corn import estimates were lowered for the EU, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and South Korea but raised for Mexico, Venezuela, and Indonesia. Foreign corn ending stocks were lower, mostly reflecting a decline for Ukraine that was partly offset by an increase for Brazil. At 319.6 million tons, global corn ending stocks are down by 2.4m. 

Soybean crush rates hold steady; Brazil production down

The outlook for U.S. soybean supply and use for 2023/24 was unchanged. Soybean crush was unchanged, although the soybean meal extraction rate increased slightly. Higher soybean meal exports were mostly offset by lower domestic use.

Global 2023/24 oilseed production was reduced by 0.7 million tons to 658.7m, on lower soybean and sunflower seed production partly offset by higher rapeseed (canola). Sunflower seed production was reduced on lower output for South Africa. Rapeseed production was increased on higher output for India, Russia, and Ukraine. Global soybean production was reduced by 1.4m tons on lower production for Brazil and South Africa. Global 2023/24 soybean supply and demand forecasts include lower beginning stocks, lower production, lower crush, higher exports, and lower ending stocks compared to last month.  

China soy estimates revised

Beginning stocks were lowered by 1.4m tons, mainly on historical crush and import revisions for China. Soybean crush for China was raised for 2020/21 to 2022/23 based on a review of in-country estimates and supplies. Soybean imports for China for 2022/23 were also raised to reflect shipping data by major exporters.

Soybean imports were raised on higher imports for China, which are now 0.5 million tons higher than the prior marketing year’s revised estimate. Global soybean ending stocks are lowered 1.8 million tons to 114.3 million on lower stocks for Brazil that are partly offset by higher Chinese stocks.

Global soybean production for 2023/24 was reduced on lower production for Brazil and South Africa. Soybean production for Brazil was lowered by 1.0 million tons to 155 million on harvest results in Parana and poor weather conditions in São Paulo, somewhat offset by favorable conditions in the north and Rio Grande do Sul.

South African soybean production was lowered by 0.4 million to 2.1 million on lower yield prospects. Global crush was reduced for Brazil and South Africa on lower supplies, and lower for Ukraine on higher soybean exports. Global soybean exports were raised 3.0 million tons on higher shipments to date from Brazil and Ukraine.