Sunflower markets still in price discovery process

We are still in the price discovery process for 2018 crop insurance price elections. Currently, oil type sunflowers are at $17.50 and confections are $23.70 per hundredweight. To follow sunflower price election trends, watch the 2018 CBoT December soyoil contract through February 28. Final price elections will be announced in early March.

Traders also got a reminder about the potential for an increase in soybean acres this spring, when USDA released its 10-year baseline projections for agriculture a week ago. While the forecasts didn’t include anything new about 2018 planting intentions, it reinforced the idea that soybean acres could increase significantly. USDA will update its statistical guesses at its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum. Traders will pay close attention to USDA’s expectations for 2018 planted acres, supply & demand outlooks along with ending stocks figures. This will give the market some numbers to crunch ahead of the March reports.

Traders will also continue to focus on South America weather reports and crop prospects as February is the critical month for oilseed development. The dollar weakness continues to provide a nice tailwind for commodities. The dollar hit its lowest level in more than three years recently. Recent Mexican purchases of 5,000 metric tons of U.S. sunflower oil are attributed to a more favorable dollar exchange rate. Confection in-shell and kernel exports are ahead of last year’s pace at this point in the market year as well.