The July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report was in line with most production expectations, according to one analyst.
Naomi Blohm, a senior market adviser with Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson, expects more production adjustments in the August report. She also noted an unexpected change in old crop ending stocks for corn and soybeans.
Corn
The July 12 report noted that U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies with great domestic use and exports and slightly and lower ending stocks of 1.877 billion bushels. Corn beginning stocks were lowered 145 million bushels by mostly reflecting a greater use forecast for 2023-24. Exports were raised 145 million bushels based on current outstanding sales and shipments to date.
“The eyebrow-raising point that made the trade stop in its tracks was how the U.S. Department of Agriculture reduced old crop ending stocks,” Blohm said.
A month ago the estimate was for 2.022 billion bushels.
Corn production for 2024-25 is forecast to go up 240 million bushels as a result of greater planted acres and higher projected harvested acres, WASDE stated. The yield was unchanged at 181 bushels per acre.
Total corn use was raised 100 million bushels with increases in both feed and residual use and exports based on larger supplies and lower expected prices. With use rising slightly more than supply, ending stocks were down 5 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers was lowered 10 cents to $4.30 a bushel.
Global corn stocks, at 311.6 million tons, are up 0.9 million tons.
In 2024-25, the report calls for larger corn exports for the U.S. with reductions for Russia and the EU.
Soybeans
Soybean production is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, down 15 million bushels on a projected lower harvested area, according to WASDE. The harvested area, forecast at 85.3 million acres in the June acreage report, is down 0.3 million acres. The soybean yield forecast is unchanged at 52 bushels per acre. With slightly lower beginning stocks, reduced production and unchanged use, ending stocks for 2024-25 are projected at 435 million bushels, down 20 million bushels from June.
Old crop ending stock were also reduced, and now they are at 345 million bushels, down from 350 million bushels in June, Blohm said.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024-25 was forecast at $11.10 per bushel, down 10 cents from a month ago, the report stated. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $330 per short ton and 42 cents per pound, respectively.
Global soybean beginning stocks for 2024-25 are being increased slightly with higher stocks for China, but mainly offset by lower stocks for Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay due to revisions for 2023-24. China has revised its soybean imports for 2023-24 by 3 million tons to 108 million tons on larger-than-anticipated arrivals expected in the fourth quarter of the marketing year.
With slightly higher beginning stocks, lower global production and relatively small changes to use in 2024-25, global soybeans stocks were reduced 0.1 million tons to 127.8 million tons on lower stocks for Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Russia, the European Union and the U.S., but mostly offset by higher stocks for China.
Because of the reduction of old crop ending stocks for corn and soybeans, Blohm said, new crop ending stocks came in below the average trade estimate heading into the July 12 report.
“The trade got excited about this this news; however, then reality set in. Corn carryout is set to be at 2 million bushels for another year, and soybean carryout continues to hedge higher,” she said. “This news allows us to have the need to put a weather premium back into the market quickly should Mother Nature have a trick up her sleeve come August.”
Wheat
Winter wheat production was forecast at 1.34 billion bushels, which was an increase from the previous month, the WASDE report stated. All wheat producer, according to a producer survey, was also raised from 134 million bushels to slightly over 2 billion bushels.
With larger supplies, exports in the latest report are forecast at 825 million bushels, an increase of 25 million bushels. Projected 2024-25 ending stocks are raised 98 million bushels to 856 million bushels, which is up 22% from a year ago and the highest in five years. The projected 2024-25 season-average farm price was reduced 80 cents a bushel to $5.70 a bushel on higher stocks.
Overall the global wheat outlook for 2024-25 is calling for larger supplies and consumption as supplies were increased 6.9 million tons to about 1.06 billion tons, primarily because of larger beginning stocks and higher production most notably with the United States, Pakistan and Canada. Those countries are also expected to increase their exports.
Other notables
Oat production was forecast up 15 million bushels, reflecting higher area in the acreage projection report and an increase in yield to a record 70.9 bushels per acre, according to WASDE. Barley production was lowered 11 million bushels on slightly lower area of harvested acres expected. Yield was projected at 74.2 bushels per acre. Sorghum production was reduced 15 million bushels based on the most recent report to a July total of 373 million bushels with a projected yield of 69.2 bushels per acre.
The all-rice yield was forecast at 7,645 pounds per acre, an increase of 10 pounds from the previous month.
Dave Bergmeier can be reached at 620-227-1822 or [email protected].
