Red meat and poultry production for the past year was lowered due to lower beef, pork, broiler and turkey production in the fourth quarter, according to the most recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.
Changes in the estimates reflected November production data and preliminary estimates of slaughtered numbers and weights for December. Egg production was lowered based on reduction of the layer flock as a result of highly pathogenic avian influenza-related culling in December.
The report was not a surprise to Glynn Tonsor, a professor in the department of agricultural economics at Kansas State University, as he noted uncertainty remains, particularly on hog inventories.
Beef
For 2025, the beef forecast was raised on an increase in steer and heifer slaughter due to higher placements expected during the fourth quarter of 2024, as well as higher dressed weights. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s cattle report is expected to be released Jan. 31, as well as producer intentions for retaining heifers for building the breeding herd. Tonsor said herd expansion is unlikely to occur in 2025.
“I do not see much current evidence of expansion and think it will be the summer of 2026 before we see that in a national and market-relevant way,” Tonsor said.
Production is pegged at 27.035 billion pounds on an annual basis in 2024 and is estimated in January at 26.985 billion pounds. In 2025, the annual projection is estimated at about 25.7 billion pounds.
Steers are expected to average about $196 per hundredweight for 2025, which is about $9.50 per hundredweight higher than 2024.
Beef imports and export estimates for 2024 were raised based on recent data, and, for 2025, beef imports are raised largely on continued strong shipments of beef from Oceania and South America. The export for 2025 is unchanged, the report noted.
“I think one of the more uncertain things for 2025 is how agricultural trade will shape up,” Tonsor said. “There is elevated policy uncertainty coupled with various expectations on the relative strength of the U.S. dollar that will impact trade.”
Regardless of who is president and their policies, the ag economist shares the same insight.
“I would give the same advice I always do—know your costs of production (and implied break-evens), watch for opportunities to either lock in favorable margins or buy reasonably cheap protection, and in large part focus on things you can influence (versus those you can’t).”
Pork
Pork production was raised, reflecting pig crop and farrowings data for the second half of 2024 and the first half of 2025, published in the December Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report.
Production is pegged at 27.823 billion pounds on an annual basis in 2024 and is estimated in January at 27.788 billion pounds. In 2025, the annual projection is estimated at about 28.4 billion pounds.
Pork is expected to average about $63 per hundredweight for 2025, which is about $1.50 per hundredweight higher than 2024.
Pork exports for 2024 were lowered based on trade data, and exports for 2025 are viewed as unchanged.
Poultry
Broiler production was lowered based on recent slaughter data, indicating lower-than-previously expected weights. Turkey production was lowered for the first half of 2025 based on recent hatchery data and HPAI-related culling through early January. Egg production was also lowered due to reduction of the layer flock as a result of HPAI culling.
“It is hard to predict supply disruptions, but, in the near term, disease challenges and hence product volume available are likely to remain of elevated interest and uncertainty,” Tonsor said.
Production for broilers and turkey is pegged at 47.187 billion pounds on an annual basis in 2024 and is estimated in January at 46.987 billion pounds. In 2025, the annual projection is estimated at about 47.6 billion pounds.
Egg production in 2024 was estimated at 9.03 billion dozen in 2024 and is estimated to increase to 9.31 billion dozen by the end of 2025. Imports of eggs have climbed from 26 million dozen eggs in 2022 to 30 million dozen eggs in 2024 and are expected to stay at that level in 2025.
Broilers are expected to average 130 cents per pound in 2025, which is about a cent higher than 2024. Turkey is estimated to be 99 cents per pound, which is about 5 cents per pound higher than 2024.
Eggs are expected to be at 294 cents per dozen, which is about where it was in 2024.
Broiler exports in 2024 were lowered, and the same is expected in 2025 as the industry faces lower supplies and strong price competition. Turkey exports were also lowered for 2024 and 2025.
Milk
Milk production for 2024 was lowered from the previous month with lower milk cow inventories and lower expected milk per cow based on the most recent milk production report. The 2025 production forecast was also lowered due to slower growth in output per cow.
The WASDE report noted the USDA’s cattle report will provide an indication of producer intentions for retaining dairy heifers for addition to the milking herd.
Fat-basis imports for 2024 were higher, based on recent trade data. Skim-solids basis imports for 2024 were unchanged and for 2025 were lowered based on expected lower casein and milk protein concentrate. Fat-basis imports for 2025 were raised on higher expected cheese and butter imports.
Exports on a fat basis are higher for both 2024 and 2025 on recent trade data and higher expected shipments of butter and cheese due to the United States price competitiveness of butter and cheese. Exports on a skim-solids basis are lowered for both 2024 and 2025 on recent trade data and less competitive U.S. nonfat dairy milk and whey.
For 2024, product and class price estimates were adjusted to reflect reported prices. For 2025, prices for cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk and whey are all expected to be higher due to less milk production and supportive demand. The Class III price was raised, with higher cheese and whey prices. Class IV prices were also raised due to higher butter and nonfat dairy milk price forecasts. The 2024 all-milk price forecast was lowered to $22.60 per hundredweight, and the 2025 all-milk price was raised to $23.05 per hundredweight.
Dave Bergmeier can be reached at 620-227-1822 or dbergmeier@hpj.com.
PHOTO: Meat industry, meats hanging in the cold store. (iStock │ #1134115920 – asikkk)
