Egg prices are starting to decline as consumers have adjusted to higher prices, according to the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report issued March 11.
Egg price forecasts were reduced on latest prices showing a downward turn, as market demand slowed after several weeks of increasing prices in response to highly pathogenic avian influenza-related reductions in production. Still, egg production was lowered due to HPAI-related culling of the egg laying flock through early March and that is expected to affect production through the first three quarters of 2025.
A Kansas State University agricultural economics professor said recently that trying to project egg prices and supply is difficult.
“Supply disruptions regarding egg production continue and that makes it hard to forecast the duration of elevated retail prices,” Glynn Tonsor said.
Egg prices in February soared to 444 cents a dozen and is now projected to to peak at about 700 cents in the quarter and in March it is expected to still be at 424 cents a dozen. The second quarter forecast calls for eggs to be at 390 cents a dozen.
In the major Midwest production region, wholesale prices for large, white, shell eggs delivered to warehouses delivered to warehouses increased 12 cents to $8.42 per dozen with a fully steady undertone while prices paid to producers for large cartoned shell eggs increased 12 cents to $8.24 a dozen with a full steady undertone, the Agricultural Marketing Service noted in a separate report issued on March 7.
The report stated, “Shoppers have begun to see shell egg offerings in the dairy case becoming more reliable although retail price levels have yet to adjust and remain off-putting to many. Easter will be observed on April 20 this year, a full three weeks later than last year. This will give the marketplace a chance to adjust prices down to a more acceptable level ahead of the holiday demand season or risk dampening demand altogether.
“Late April weather is much more spring-like then late March and more suitable for outdoor egg hunts and shell egg demand. Demand from egg products manufacturers retreated to mostly live levels this week as many have been able to build stocks, after slowing production in recent weeks. This has allowed them to increase production of egg products without having to look to the spot market to supplement their raw stock needs.”
Other notes
Bernt Nelson, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, said based on USDA Economic Research Service, some 12 million birds, mostly layers, were lost in February, bringing the total number of birds affected so far in 2025 to over 35 million and driving egg prices even higher. The daily national average price for a dozen large eggs was $8.15 per dozen on March 4.
Broiler production was raised slightly to 46.994 billion pounds in the March 11 WASDE report based on improved returns and the latest placement and hatchery data. Turkey production was lowered to 4.925 billion pounds.
The broiler price forecast was lowered to 131 cents a pound based on lower expected prices during the first half of the year. The 2025 turkey price was lowered on recent prices and weaker demand to 96 cents a pound.
Dave Bergmeier can be reached at 620-227-1822 or dbergmeier@hpj.com.
