Three soybean market fundamentals to monitor during August

Since mid-June, the November 2025 soybean futures prices have trended lower, losing nearly 70 cents a bushel. For now, keeping the November 2025 futures contract above $10 a bushel technical support is because of lower United States planted acres along with strong domestic demand.

However, the uncertainty of August weather during the critical pod filling time frame and uncertainties regarding U.S. export demand to China is keeping the market price from rallying— for now.

What will be the ultimate price direction of soybean futures? What should producers monitor during the month of August? Here are three fundamentals to watch.

From a marketing perspective

First watch the Aug. 12 U.S. Department of Agriculture’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Look for any potential shifts in U.S. soybean yield and demand.

According to the recent July WASDE report, the USDA suggested that the U.S. soybean yield would be 52.5 bushels per acre, a record yield. So far, the weather for the majority of the Midwest this summer has been conducive to growing a large soybean crop. Will the USDA stick with 52.5 yield for one more month? Or change the number?

U.S. soybean domestic demand is phenomenal thanks to crush demand for biofuel. Soybeans used for the crush for the 2025-26 crop year are slated at 2.54 billion bushels, up from 2.42 last year.

What still lies in question is where soybean demand for exports will ultimately fall. Right now, the USDA has soybean exports for the 2025-26 crop year pegged at 1.745 billion bushels, but many in the industry question if that number is too high.  The fear is that we will continue to lose soybean export demand to China due to ongoing trade negotiations and other issues. China continues to purchase the majority of its soybean needs from South America.

Next, and potentially the most obvious, is to monitor weather conditions during August. July brought welcomed rain to many portions of the Midwest and if that pattern continues, traders might begin to suggest that the U.S. soybean crop average yield might be larger than the current USDA estimate of 52.5 bushels per acre. On the other hand, should a hotter and drier weather pattern begin to emerge, soybean prices currently have very little weather premium built into the price, and a short-term rally might occur.

Lastly, keep an eye on managed money fund trader activity. Fund managers watch and monitor grain market fundamentals and technical chart aspects, as they look for opportunities to invest and make money. When they are long (buyers) in the grain market, prices tend to trade higher, and there are usually underlying friendly fundamental components supporting grain prices, too. When funds are short (sellers) in the market, it is often due to grain supply and demand fundamentals that are shifting to bearish.

Currently, fund traders seem to believe that the U.S. farmer will be able to achieve record yield for the 2025-26 crop year, and that U.S. supplies of soybeans will be ample. On the July 18, 2025, Commitment of Traders Report, the managed money funds began their trek of being short soybean futures, to the tune of nearly 17,000 contracts.    

While past performance is not indicative of future results, it seems that unless there is a surprise weather condition later this summer, managed money fund traders may be tempted to continue to build their short position.

Prepare yourself…

Sometimes, it is easy to become complacent with grain marketing when prices are not overly attractive. Stay alert. Keep watching. Keep monitoring.

One unforeseen global event, USDA report, or weather event could transform the soybean marketing landscape.

If you have questions, you can reach Naomi at [email protected] or find her on X (formerly twitter) @naomiblohm.

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