Sharply increased yield estimates for corn in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Aug. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates surprised markets. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at a record 188.8 bushels per acre, was 7.8 bushels higher than July’s projection.
The WASDE report projected a record-high average corn yield of 188.8 bushels per acre for the 2025 growing season—but export demand figures also rose, leading some in the ag press to speculate increased export demand could reflect trade deals made under tariff pressure.
The yield estimates were up from the previous year’s yield and were a key factor in the overall record corn production forecast of 16.7 billion bushels, according to the USDA.
This month’s 2025-26 United States corn outlook was for sharply higher supplies, greater domestic use and exports, and larger ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2025-26 were 35 million bushels lower, based on a slightly higher use forecast for 2024-25.
For 2024-25, larger corn exports were partly offset by reductions in corn used for ethanol and glucose and dextrose. Corn production for 2025-26 was forecast at a record 16.7 billion bushels, up 1 billion from last month with a 1.9-million acre increase in harvested area and higher yield. If realized, this total would be 1.4 billion bushels more than the prior record set in 2023-24.
Total U.S. corn use for 2025-26 was forecast 545 million bushels higher to 16 billion bushels. Feed and residual use was raised 250 million bushels to 6.1 billion bushels based on a larger crop and lower expected prices. Corn used for glucose and dextrose was projected lower based on observed use during 2024-25. Corn used for ethanol for 2025-26 was raised by 100 million bushels to 5.6 billion bushels. Exports were raised 200 million bushels to a record 2.9 billion bushels reflecting U.S. export competitiveness and expectations of relatively low world market prices.
Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2025-26 included higher corn exports for the U.S. and Ukraine, but reductions for Serbia and the European Union. Corn imports were raised for Mexico, the EU, Egypt, Colombia, and Turkey but lowered for Canada. Foreign corn ending stocks were down, reflecting declines for China, Indonesia, and the EU that were partly offset by increases for Ukraine and Egypt. Global corn stocks, at 282.6 million tons, were up 10.4 million tons.
David Murray can be reached at [email protected].
