In last month’s article we discussed three important soybean market fundamentals to monitor during August.
The first item to monitor was the August U.S. Department of Agriculture’s World Agricultural Demand and Supplies Estimate report to see if it would provide any new supply or demand information. The next item to monitor was August weather followed by keeping an eye on fund trader activity.
August proved to be an exciting month for soybean futures fundamentals and prices, with a near 80-cent rally for the November 2025 futures contract. Let’s take a closer look at the fundamental changes that have occurred.
From a marketing perspective
The Aug. 12 report had plenty of surprises for soybeans. The report was overall viewed as friendly due to a surprise in lower United States soybean production. The biggest shock was the lower adjustment to planted soybean acreage.
Heading into the August WASDE report, planted soybean acres for the 2025-26 crop year were pegged at 83.4 million acres, which was derived from the June 30 USDA Planted Acreage Report.
The August report, which had updated USDA Farm Service Agency data, stunned traders as planted acreage was reduced by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres (with 1.2 million acres of prevented plant soybeans).
While planted acres were lower, the USDA did adjust the soybean yield higher. With very cooperative July and August weather, the August USDA report pegged yield at 53.6 bushels per acre, up 1.1 bushel per acre from the July report. The net result was that total production for the 2025-26 crop year is now projected at 4.292 billion bushels, down from 4.335 billion bushels in July.
Even though production was lowered, which was supportive for prices, the USDA did acknowledge the slow pace of demand for exports (because of lost export demand to China due to trade and tariff strife). New crop exports were lowered by 40 million bushels, and they are now pegged at 1.705 billion bushels, down from 1.875 billion during the 2024-25 crop year.
The net result, with combined lower demand, and lower production, is that ending stocks were dropped. New crop ending stocks for the 2025-26 crop year are now pegged at 290 million bushels, the lowest in three years.
Prepare yourself…
Fund traders saw the friendlier tone of the report and began to exit short positions. This also helped to propel soybean futures prices higher.
After being short over 50,000 contracts in early August, managed money funds, as of the Aug. 22 Commodity Futures Trading Commission report, had exited all their short positions.
Keep monitoring. Now that production has been lowered in the U.S., soybean futures have an underlying friendly supportive tone. However, demand for exports still is in question. One unforeseen global event, USDA report, or weather event could transform the soybean marketing landscape yet again.
If you have questions, you can reach Naomi at [email protected] or find her on X (formerly twitter) @naomiblohm.
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