As someone who watched interest rates surge and profits erased by a sea of red ink during the 1980s, I’ve never wanted to witness that again. In my home state of Iowa, farmland lost 60% of its value between 1981 and 1986 and foreclosures skyrocketed.
When you look at several of the key economic indicators across farm country today, 2025 is far better than 1985. But it’s evident that more and more row crop farmers are feeling they are about to be squeezed out of business because of several factors.
New polling shows the majority of United States corn producers see an economic crisis on the horizon—or at least the possibility of one.
In a recent survey commissioned by the National Corn Growers Association, the Farm Journal polled more than 1,000 farmers on whether they think the U.S. is on the brink of a farm crisis.
Almost half the farmers surveyed in late August and early September said the U.S. is on the brink of a crisis. A third said the farm economy might be heading that way, while just 15% said they don’t think a crisis is coming. The farmers included in the survey have corn as their primary crop.
Accordingly, 76% of respondents said they were “very” or “moderately” concerned about the state of the farm economy. This concern has grown for most farmers in the last year, respondents say, with 65% reporting heightened concern.
“It’s a four-alarm fire in the countryside,” NCGA President Kenneth Hartman Jr. said in a statement. “Farmers are in a lot of economic pain right now.”
This growing anxiety is also set to affect the bottom lines of farm input suppliers, particularly manufacturers of farm equipment, the survey shows.
Almost 60% of respondents said concerns over the farm economy would likely cause them to postpone equipment purchases in the coming year. Some 38% said they would pare back fertilizer application.
Some farmers also said they are planning to diversify income streams, adjust the crops they plant, extend debt terms, or reduce the acres farmed.
Only 20% of respondents said they would not make any operational adjustments in 2026, and 12% said they would retire or leave farming altogether.
“These findings point to a once-in-a-generation problem for the agricultural economy,” said NCGA Chief Economist Krista Swanson in a statement.
She stressed that misgivings about the farm economy could have an exceptionally “long reach” and trigger economic losses across the entire sector.
During a panel discussion to unveil the survey’s findings, John Newton, executive head of Terrain Ag, called the survey a “flashing red light” for the farm economy.
Newton said that while topline financial indicators may not be showing signs of extreme distress, a very strong cattle sector may be masking some of the underlying weakness.
The survey, Newton said, may be “the biggest flashing red light we have.”
Swanson highlighted the mounting distress in the U.S. corn sector. The costs to grow corn, she said, are higher than the sale price for the third year in a row. Farmers are projected to face an average deficit of $170 per acre.
“If you add up those three years, that is the largest cumulative… net loss going all the way back as far as the dataset goes—to 1975,” Swanson added.
The poll landed the same day as a new Rabobank report projecting higher operating costs and tighter margins.
“Overall, the 2026 season is projected to be more expensive,” said Bruno Fonseca, a senior analyst at the bank.
Fonseca notes that fertilizer prices are set to rise on lower supplies.
A glut of commodities, including corn, wheat and oilseeds, driven by bumper harvests, are also set to drag on prices, the Rabobank report notes.
“Record output in major production areas like Brazil and the U.S. is overwhelming the market with supply, which will keep prices depressed in the short to medium term,” Fonseca said in a statement on the report. “And with stubborn and near-historic input prices, profitability in the grain and oilseed sector will remain challenging.”
“It’s all about E15—higher blends of ethanol. Domestically, we need to get this,” Hartman said during the panel discussion. He pointed out that other countries like Brazil are already at higher blend rates.
“Why are we sitting here at a 10% ethanol (blend)?” he asked, “We have all this corn that we can use domestically.”
The ethanol and corn industries have been eyeing the latest defense authorization bill or must-pass spending legislation as potential vehicles for year-round E15 legislation.
A bipartisan proposal was culled from must-pass government spending legislation in December at the eleventh hour.
Editor’s note: Sara Wyant is publisher of Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc., www.Agri-Pulse.com.
