September brought welcome rain to parts of the Plains, but in some instances this rain came with severe storms.
One severe storm in particular doused McCook, Nebraska, and dropped very large hail there, too. Several reports of 3-inch hail came in from that cell on Sept. 16. The same cell that sat over McCook for hours dropped 5.01 inches of rain.
Storms with slow-moving activity were the case for parts of the Plains that week. Broken Bow also picked up heavy rain that same day. The next day, Borger, Texas, and Dodge City, Kansas, noted some heavier totals of 2 inches and 1.12 inches, respectively.
Earlier in the month (the week of Sept. 8), heavier rain was focused across central Kansas with 2 to 6 inches of rain. This led to flooding in some spots too.
In the global view, ENSO-neutral conditions were still ongoing. Coming up within the next few months, a switch to La Niña is expected. After that, La Niña is forecast to stay through the remainder of 2025 and possibly beyond that, but after December some uncertainty arises.
For October, much of Texas and the panhandle of Oklahoma are expected to see above average temperatures.
At that same time, below average precipitation is forecast for much of Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma and southeast Kansas.
Through December, below normal precipitation is expected for all of the Southern Plains into Kansas as well as southern and western Nebraska.
The Southern Plains, Kansas and Nebraska will likely see above average temperatures the next three months.
The below average precipitation forecast in the coming months is expected to play a part in expanding drought in the Southern Plains. Most of Texas and Oklahoma will likely enter some sort of drought before the end of 2025.
I’m always keeping an eye to the sky (and the weather patterns), so watch for next month’s update.
Editor’s note: Regina Bird grew up on a farm near Belleville, Kansas. The views from the farm helped spur her interest in weather. Following high school, she went on to get a bachelor’s degree in meteorology from the University of Kansas. She worked as a television meteorologist for nine years in Nebraska. Follow her on Twitter: @ReginaBirdWX.
