A return of China to buying United States soybeans was welcome news for farmers, according to analysts and experts who follow global trade.
They agreed it was premature to say it was a game-changer, but Oct 30’s announcement by the White House was a helpful sign moving forward.
“The amount of beans that China has agreed to purchase from us, is pretty much the same, regular amount they purchased from us last year, and is already accounted for on the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates supply/demand sheet,” said Naomi Blohm, senior market adviser with Total Farm Marketing.
China on Oct. 30 agreed to buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans for delivery later this year and an additional 25 million metric tons each year from 2026 to 2028, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
“The deal definitely helps soybean growers, as it guarantees over 400 million bushels of Chinese export sales this year and roughly 900 million bushels of Chinese export sales for the three years after,” said Chart Hart, a professor in agricultural economics at Iowa State University. “The caution would be ‘what happens after that’. If you think back to the Phase 1 trade deal, the U.S. soybean market factored the increased sales under Phase 1 beyond the agreement, and that did not happen. So, we have to recall that the guarantee only goes so far.”
Back to 2023-24
The announced sales equal the same amount of soybeans China bought in the 2023-24 marketing year, which amounted to 54% of all soybean exports, Blohm said.
She said Bessent on Fox Business Network on Oct. 30, also said other countries would buy at least 19 million metric tons, or 698 million bushels. That’s a total commitment based on trade deals of 1.6 billion bushels. That total also matches current U.S. Department of Agriculture projections, Blohm added.
“This is not above and beyond new demand,” she said.
Guy Allen, a senior economist with the International Grains Program at Kansas State University, said the 25 million metric tons is historically on the low end of what China buys, but it is a starting point. He expects soybeans from the 12 million metric tons commitment to arrive in China before Christmas and the sales in 2026 should put a pop in the market.
Soybean farmers have been seeing prices hovering around $10 a bushel or lower for most of 2025. With the new information, Blohm said, it could boost per-bushel price in 2026.
“The basis should definitely improve for most locations now that export demand is known,” she said. “The best-case scenario, March 2026 soy futures, climb to $12 (a bushel).”
“We’ve already seen a major rebound,” Hart said. “The November 2025 soybean futures were $10 per bushel at the beginning of October, and they finished October at $11. There should be some additional increases as the sales actually roll in.
Tariff war ramifications
With the threat of tariffs from President Donald Trump, the Chinese retaliated and looked to Brazil for their soybean supplies for most of this year.
Allen said in recent years for several reasons Brazil has been the country of choice. A favorable current rate exchange benefited both countries. Plus, Brazil does not have the same transportation logistics and long-term storage capacity as the U.S. and farmers there sell most of their soybeans the same year they harvest them. Brazil harvests soybeans in the first quarter and with a large crop in place, China could continue to buy Brazilian beans and bypass the U.S. until now.
“I was not surprised to see China come back into the market. Brazil had a record crop so when they ran out China shifted its strategy to North America,” Allen said. “China is a shrewd trader. When you negotiate with China, they don’t look at it singularly, they look at all options.”
China is not easy to deal with, he said.
Allen said when trying to export ag products to China, it means dealing with state-owned COFCO. China Oil and Foodstuffs Corporation has not yet confirmed the agreement. With the federal government shutdown, U.S. Department of Agriculture figures have not been available for more than a month.
The White House said China will lower tariff barriers.
Soybeans and sorghum are likely to be grains China will continue to buy on the global market for the foreseeable future, Allen said.
Soybean and sorghum growers have felt the brunt of the tariff war between the U.S. and China.
China is mostly self-sufficient with other grains. Chinese-grown corn, primarily in the northern part of the country is in a growing region similar to the Dakotas in the U.S., and is used to support its livestock industry, Allen said. China wants to become self-sufficient in feeding livestock while recognizing that high-quality beef is luxury and that may be sustained as a niche market that benefits the U.S. cattle industry.
A difficult market
For nearly 30 years, presidents, Congress and farm interests have been frustrated by China’s unwillingness to comply with World Trade Organization rules and standards, which is designed to reduce tariffs and support fair trade.
Historically, China has imposed high tariffs (65%) on U.S. corn, wheat and barley, Allen said, and imposed 42% tariffs on beef, pork and poultry.
When it came to the latest purchase of soybeans it was based on a need, Allen said, “China had to come back into the market before the end of the year.
“We missed October because they bought from Brazil,” he said. “What was interesting to me is the Chinese were paying hefty premium of about $1.50 a bushel higher than if they had bought it from the U.S.”
Blohm’s advice to producers is to understand technical charts and seasonal charts as they contemplate their marketing decisions.
“Now we know where export demand is, therefore, the current (based on September information) USDA numbers are legit and ending stocks of U.S. beans are right,” she said. “This supports acreage competition for spring.”
Soybean acres shifted in 2025 as some growers, anticipating a closed market to China, switched soybean acres to corn. Earlier in the year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed that an additional 4.7 million acres were added to corn production while at the time, soybean acres were about 3.6 million acres lower.
Potentially a shot in the arm
Hart said the deal provides some certainty in the soybean market and should help create a more “normal” seasonal pattern for soybean prices over the coming marketing year.
It is also providing a stronger outlet for producers who might feel they need to sell now, if they need to boost their cash flow, Hart said, adding that operationally for 2026, this also supports farmers sticking with their agronomic rotation between corn and soybeans.
“Without this deal, I think some producers were considering more corn-on-corn acres,” Hart said.
Blohm expects the competition between corn and soybeans acres to return.
“Given this news, yes, we should see acreage move back to soybeans,” Hart said. “The combination of these sales and higher fertilizer prices make soybeans a more attractive option.”
Allen noted that while the agreement on soybeans will provide some price support, persistently high input costs remains an important challenge for producers.
Hart and Allen will both be watching to see how China responds when it is time to buy soybeans and other agricultural products.
“The details of the agreement may spell that out, but I am watching to see if some wheat also moves into the Chinese market, along with some protein (pork and beef) sales,” Hart said.
Allen is taking a wait-and-see approach.
Dave Bergmeier can be reached at 620-227-1822 or [email protected].
