Corn futures have been trading in a very lackluster, 20-cent trading range since September. The market is challenged by the notion of a record large corn crop, which is keeping a lid on prices.
However, price support for corn stems from strong demand for both exports and domestic needs. What will ultimately tip the scales for corn prices in the new year? Here are three fundamental items to monitor.
From a marketing perspective
The first item to monitor is where the U.S. Department of Agriculture will peg yield for the United States corn crop. In the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the USDA did not lower its corn yield estimate as much as the trade thought it would. Yield was pegged at 186 bushels per acre, which was two bushels per acre higher than the 184 pre-report trade estimate number.
The December WASDE report is not expected to mark significant yield changes, with the USDA likely to wait until the January 2026 report before making potential large adjustments. Many in the industry feel that the corn yield number needs to be reduced due to the unprecedented amount of southern rust that many farmers in the Midwest had to battle and in locations that were not familiar to dealing with the fungus before.
The second item to monitor will be on the demand side for corn. Export and ethanol demand for corn are exceedingly strong. However, the number in question is the 6.1 billion-bushel demand number pegged for feed and residual use for the 2025-26 crop year. Demand in this category for old crop, the 2024-25 crop year, is slated remarkably lower 5.492 billion bushels.
The reason the number of 6.1 billion bushels is in question is because from last year to this year the number of livestock on feed is not that much larger than year ago levels. Therefore, some wonder how can we be feeding more corn if the number of livestock is similar to last year?
The third item to monitor is the perception and trend of the ending stock number for corn. Currently, the ending stock number for corn for the 2025-26 crop year is pegged at 2.154 billion bushels, which is a comfortable number, and part of the reason why corn prices have struggled to rally. However, if perception shifts, and ending stocks fall below 2 billion bushels in the January 2026 WASDE, then that could lead to a competition for spring planted acres into the new year and support a potential modest price bump for corn future prices as well.
However, should the ending stock number stay at or above 2 billion bushels, it could keep a lid on corn futures prices.
Prepare yourself…
What will the new year bring for corn prices? The contrast between the USDA’s yield outlook and farmer sentiment about yields means the December and January WASDE reports will be
watched closely. Ultimately, any potential price rally will likely be welcomed as a cash sale opportunity for farmers storing corn at home this winter in bins. It may also be an opportunity to begin forward contracting corn for the 2025-26 crop year.
Fundamental news continues to shift weekly. Be ready to act on pricing opportunities as they become available. Have action plans ready for whatever market scenario unfolds. Remember, marketing is how you get paid for your hard work. Prices can turn on a whim, be confident and ready.
If you have questions, you can reach Naomi at [email protected] or find her on X (formerly twitter) @naomiblohm.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Examples of seasonal price moves or extreme market conditions are not meant to imply that such moves or conditions are common occurrences or likely to occur. Futures prices have already factored in the seasonal aspects of supply and demand. Total Farm Marketing refers to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency and an equal opportunity provider. A customer may have relationships with any of the three companies
