Cattle fundamentals to monitor into the new year
For most of 2025 live cattle futures have been on a steady price trend higher due to a historically small United States herd and strong demand. The December 2025 live cattle futures contract peaked near $248 in mid-October.
However, prices began to fall dramatically shortly thereafter when President Donald Trump suggested he was aware that U.S. beef prices were high and he would be addressing a plan to bring prices down for consumers.
That sentiment was enough to startle the market, sending prices lower as traders exited long positions. December 2025 live cattle futures plunged down to the $205 range by late November. As the final days of 2025 came to a close, December 2025 cattle futures have recovered somewhat, trading near $230 as of this writing.
From a marketing perspective
Heading into 2026, the cattle market fundamentals and prices may be approaching a crossroads.
While many cattle market fundamentals remain supportive with strong domestic demand, and a still small U.S. cattle herd, traders may be monitoring other factors that could affect price direction in 2026.
Traders will continue to monitor actions of the current administration for signs of policy change or trade policy change. An important factor to monitor in 2026 is increasing amounts of beef imports into the U.S. from multiple countries such as Brazil, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and Uruguay.
According to the December 2025 U.S. Department of Agriculture’s World Agricultural Supply and Demands Estimate report, U.S. beef imports for 2025 are projected at 5,344 million pounds, up from 4,635 in 2024. Current USDA import projections for 2026 are now pegged even higher at 5,450 million pounds.
The other important factor to watch for 2026 is the potential border opening with Mexico. Prior to the closure, the U.S. was importing nearly 1.2 million head of feeder cattle annually. Should the border open, slowly those cattle will enter the country, helping to alleviate the tight U.S. cattle supply.
Prepare yourself
Cattle futures are still trading near historic all-time highs. While U.S. supplies are tight, various import factors and policy factors may affect the market in 2026. Keep in mind that for markets to continue to rally, fresh bullish news is needed often. The old saying is “bull markets have long tails.” That suggests that, once a bull market ends, prices trend lower for a long time. Be ready for anything.
If you have questions, you can reach Naomi at [email protected] or find her on X (formerly twitter) @naomiblohm.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Examples of seasonal price moves or extreme market conditions are not meant to imply that such moves or conditions are common occurrences or likely to occur. Futures prices have already factored in the seasonal aspects of supply and demand. Total Farm Marketing refers to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency and an equal opportunity provider. A customer may have relationships with any of the three companies.
