Dry pattern lingers across High Plains
The Lower 48 states and Alaska only saw degradations in drought conditions this past week.
There was a strong east-to-west temperature gradient again this week, with below-normal temperatures across much of the East and above-normal temperatures across the West. Another week of localized precipitation that missed large portions of the country led to expanding precipitation deficits.
Degradations were also scattered across the West, from the Pacific Northwest into the northern and central Rockies, including portions of Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and western Colorado. Although some mountain snow fell, critically low snowpack with snow-water equivalent levels below the 15th percentile continues to dominate much of the region and support ongoing drought expansion.
Across the High Plains and into the western Midwest, one-class degradations followed another mostly dry week. In the South, from the eastern-southern Plains of Oklahoma and Texas eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley there was scattered precipitation in some locations. Short- to mid-term precipitation deficits continue to grow, with drying soils and low streamflows supporting intensification.
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. (Map courtesy of NDMC.)
South
Drought conditions across the South continued to deteriorate as much of the region received little to no meaningful precipitation. Most areas recorded below 50% of normal rainfall, with many locations under 25% of normal.
Short- to mid-term precipitation deficits continue to grow across Arkansas and portions of Texas and Oklahoma, with many areas 2 to 6 inches below normal over the past few months. Soil moisture percentiles remain below normal across much of the region and are particularly low in southern Arkansas and parts of western Oklahoma and South Texas. Streamflows in several basins continue to run below seasonal averages, with some gauges in low percentiles following weeks of limited recharge.
In Deep South Texas, long-term dryness continues to intensify. From Aug. 14, 2025, through Feb. 10, 2026, Rio Grande City ranks as the fifth warmest and third driest on record dating back to 1928, while McCook ranks as the second warmest and sixth driest since 1942 according to National Weather Service and National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration.
A nearby Texas Mesonet site near Hebbronville recorded just 3.81 inches over the past 180 days, and another Mesonet site along the Starr and Jim Hogg County line recorded 11.5 inches, with only 0.33 inches falling during December and January combined. Persistent six-month precipitation deficits and continued warmth reinforced long-term hydrologic stress across the lower Rio Grande Valley.
Midwest
It was another dry week across the Midwest, receiving little to no precipitation while temperatures remained below normal. Snow cover continues across the northern part and portions of the Great Lakes, keeping soils frozen.
While most of the Midwest was unchanged, widespread degradations were made across portions of Illinois and Missouri where 3-to-6-month precipitation deficits grew, with low streamflows and below-normal groundwater levels. Short- to mid-term precipitation deficits and declining streamflows supported expansion of dryness across parts of Missouri, including northwestern, south-central and southeastern areas, with additional intensification near the Missouri-Arkansas border where longer-term deficits continue to grow. Farther north and west, localized expansion of abnormal dryness occurred in portions of Minnesota and Iowa where recent weather systems largely missed and short-term soil moisture percentiles show drying.
High Plains
The High Plains saw little to no meaningful precipitation, with most of the region receiving less than 25% of normal and many locations at or below 5% of normal precipitation.
Any snowfall was light and offered minimal liquid-equivalent benefit. In eastern Wyoming and eastern Colorado, precipitation deficits continue to deepen with soil moisture percentiles declining, and recent above-normal temperatures led to drying where snow cover is limited.
This led to expansion of moderate and severe drought across parts of eastern Wyoming and Colorado into the southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle and the western Nebraska Sandhills. Similarly, growing short- to medium-term precipitation deficits, below-normal soil moisture percentiles and elevated evaporative demand led to the introduction of extreme drought to Nebraska’s Panhandle.
Eastern Nebraska also saw the expansion of abnormal dryness as the lack of precipitation has led to drying conditions. Across Kansas, degradations occurred primarily in the northwest, south and along the Missouri border in eastern Kansas following another dry week which, like the rest of the region, added to the growing precipitation deficits and drying soil moisture.
West
Precipitation across the West was light and uneven. Most low-elevation areas in California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah and western Colorado received little to no measurable liquid precipitation, with seven-day totals generally below 0.25 to 0.50 inches.
Mountain snow did fall in portions of the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest, but accumulations were locally light and patchy. Snowpack and Snow Water Equivalent percentiles remain well below normal at many SNOTEL sites: much of Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming and western Colorado show SWE values in the lowest 15th percentile, with numerous locations in the single digits for this time of year.
Temperatures were above normal across broad areas of the interior West, especially in the Great Basin, central and eastern Wyoming, and northern Colorado, where daytime highs ran 5 to 15 degrees above average at times. These warmer temperatures limited snow accumulation in some basins and contributed to surface drying where snow cover was sparse or absent.
Despite seeing precipitation this week, areas of Montana still saw degradations where short- to mid-term precipitation deficits, low soil moisture percentiles and poor snowpack continue to be of concern. Across western Colorado, persistent 2-to 4-month precipitation deficits combined with declining soil moisture and very low SWE percentiles (snow drought) led to further degradations. Many SNOTEL sites in the central Rockies and Great Basin continue to report levels below the 10th percentile for snowpack, with Colorado experiencing its worst snowpack-to-date on record, according to Denver Water and 9NEWS.
Looking ahead
Over the next five to seven days (Feb. 12 to 17), a widespread and active precipitation pattern is forecast across much of the western and southern United States. The heaviest totals are expected from eastern Texas into Arkansas, where widespread amounts of 3 to 5 inches are forecast, with locally higher totals possible.
Additional areas of 1 to 3 inches are expected across much of the lower Mississippi Valley, central Gulf Coast, and into portions of the Southeast. Farther west, widespread precipitation is forecast across California, the Great Basin, and into the central and northern Rockies, where liquid-equivalent totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts in favored terrain. Lighter but still meaningful precipitation is forecast across portions of the Midwest and into parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. In contrast, much of the northern Plains is expected to remain relatively dry during this period.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 6- to10-day temperature outlook (Feb. 17 to 21) favors above-normal temperatures across much of the central and eastern U.S., including the Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley and Southeast. The strongest probabilities for above-normal temperatures are centered over the central Plains and lower Mississippi Valley.
The CPC 6- to 10-day precipitation outlook (Feb. 17 to 21) favors above-normal precipitation across much of the western U.S., including California, the Great Basin, and the northern and central Rockies. Above-normal precipitation is also favored across parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
In contrast, below-normal precipitation is favored across the southern tier from southern Texas eastward across the Gulf Coast and into Florida. Much of the central U.S., including portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, is favored to see near-normal precipitation .
Lindsay Johnson is with the National Drought Mitigation Center.
