Heading into harvest, grain traders continue to seek answers for basic supply and demand fundamentals for corn and soybeans. With a lack of trade deal in place with China, demand for United States soybeans remains in question.
On the supply side, what once seemed like an assured massive crop this summer, now draws into question as to what final yield results will be. This uncertainty is due to the hot and dry weather conditions in August for the eastern Midwest, which may have affected soybean yield, while the western Midwest dealt with southern rust potentially decimating corn yields.
From a marketing perspective
The September U.S. Department of Agriculture’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report did little to shed new light on the situation, with the USDA likely waiting for full harvest results, before any major updating of balance sheets.
Looking at new crop corn (the 2025-26 crop year), there were a few surprising elements on the September USDA report. The USDA increased planted acres for corn by an additional 1.4 million acres to 98.7 million acres. Harvested acres now are projected at 90 million acres, up 1.3 million acres from last month.
Acknowledging potential pollination issues and complications from southern rust lurking in fields, the USDA did trim yields, but only modestly, as expected. Corn yield is now estimated at 186.7 bushels per acre, down from 188.8 last month. The combination of higher acres and lower yield was an overall increase in 2025-26 corn production by 72 million bushels to an astounding 16.814 billion bushels.
Looking at the specific breakdown, on the demand side, total feed and residual use is now projected at 6.1 billion bushels. Ethanol use is pegged at 5.6 billion bushels. The USDA increased projected corn exports for the 2025-26 crop 100 million bushels to 2.975 billion bushels.
Ending stocks for the 2025-26 corn crop are projected at 2.11 billion bushels, down modestly from 2.117 billion in August.
Looking at the supply and demand report for soybeans, the USDA increased planted acres by 200,000, and now says U.S. farmers planted 81.1 million acres of soybeans in the spring and expects them to harvest 80.3 million acres of it.
The USDA acknowledged the less-than-ideal August weather for the eastern Midwest and lowered the national average yield by 0.1 bushel per acre to 53.5 bushels per acre. Combined, this resulted in a 9-million-bushel increase in production.
On the demand side, crush demand grew by 15 million bushels (mb) to 2.555 billion bushels. The USDA acknowledged again the lack of export sales to China, and reduced soybean export demand by 20 million bushels to 1.685 billion bushels. Seed use was forecast at 73 million bushels, unchanged from last month, while residual use increased by 3 million bushels to 37
million bushels. The net result was an increase in ending stocks from 290 million to 300 million bushels.
Prepare yourself…
Corn and soybean futures may trade in a lackluster price pattern in the coming weeks until more is known regarding yield.
Should yield be perceived to be in the low 180s for corn, that would likely continue to lend to price support. Should yield drop below 180 bushels per acre, that could drastically drop ending stocks and could be a game changer to not only the U.S. balance sheet for corn, but the global balance sheet as well.
The same holds true for soybeans, should yield be perceived to be closer to 51 bushels per acre, that would be supportive to soybean prices, as would any sign of a trade deal with China.
If you have questions, you can reach Naomi at [email protected] or find her on X (formerly twitter) @naomiblohm.
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