The mountain of corn that’s been pushing down corn prices just got bigger, and it’s growing faster than demand, “shocking” markets, according to one analyst. Markets expected a downward adjustment in year-end amounts, but got record-breaking increases in corn yields and acreage instead.
Market reaction to the soybean estimates was also bearish, due to projections of higher production for Brazil. Futures dropped for both corn and soybeans.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate, released Jan. 12, projected larger production, higher feed and residual use, reduced food, seed, and industrial use, and greater ending stocks. Corn production was estimated at 17 billion bushels, up by 269 million bushels on a 0.5-bushel increase in yield to 186.5 bushels per acre and a 1.3-million-acre rise in harvested area. South Dakota and North Carolina both reported more than 1 billion bushels of production.
The new estimates alarmed corn growers, who are calling for quick passage of legislation to increase ethanol blends to 15% year-round to soak up some of the excess.
Since the July 2025 WASDE, harvested area has surged by 4.5 million acres. The record corn crop in 2025 exceeds the prior high set in 2023 by 1.7 billion bushels, or more than 40 million tons. Total corn use was raised by 90 million bushels to 16.4 billion bushels. Feed and residual use was up 100 million bushels to 6.2 billion bushels, based on indicated disappearance during the September-November quarter as reflected by the Grain Stocks report.
Food, seed and industrial use were all down slightly, reflecting reductions in the amount of corn used for glucose and dextrose and high-fructose corn syrup. With supply rising more than use, corn stocks were boosted by 198 million bushels to 2.2 billion bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers was raised 10 cents to $4.10 per bushel,
Global coarse grain production for 2025-26 was forecast up 14.8 million tons to 1.591 billion tons. January’s foreign coarse grain outlook was for greater production, virtually unchanged trade, and higher ending stocks. Foreign corn production was forecast higher with an increase for China, where production was raised to a record 301.2 million tons, based on the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2025-26 were higher, mostly reflecting an increase for China. Global corn stocks, at 290.9 million tons, were raised by 11.8 million tons.
“We need long-term market solutions, and we need them quickly, or this is going to deepen the economic crisis in the countryside,” said Ohio farmer and National Corn Growers Association President Jed Bower. “We expect the economic and financial challenges growers are already facing will only worsen with excess supply…The urgency for Congress and the president to open new markets abroad and expand consumer access to ethanol just increased exponentially.”
Bower said passing legislation authorizing year-round consumer access to fuels with 15% ethanol blends would immediately boost demand. He said this solution comes at no cost to consumers, requires no additional infrastructure developments and could use 2.4 billion additional bushels of corn annually at full implementation, according to NCGA estimates.
Soybeans also bearish
United States oilseed production for 2025-26 was estimated at 126.2 million tons, up by 0.5 million tons from the previous report. Higher soybean, canola and sunflower seed crops were partly offset by lower cottonseed and peanuts.
U.S. soybean production was estimated at 4.3 billion bushels, up 9 million bushels, led by increases for Kansas, Kentucky and Minnesota. The harvested area was estimated at 80.4 million acres, up 100,000 acres. Yield remained unchanged from last month at 53 bushels per acre.
U.S. soybean supply for 2025-26 was raised 17 million bushels on higher beginning stocks and production. Soybean crush for 2025-26 was raised 15 million bushels to 2.57 billion bushels on higher soybean meal domestic disappearance and exports.
Soybean meal and soybean oil extraction rates were also revised based on early-season data. Soybean oil used for biofuel was lowered 0.7 billion pounds to 14.8 billion pounds on lower-than-expected use to date and strong use of tallow as a feedstock in recent months.
U.S. soybean exports were revised 60 million bushels lower to 1.575 billion bushels on higher production and exports for Brazil. Soybean ending stocks were projected at 350 million bushels, up 60 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2025-26 was projected at $10.20 per bushel, down 30 cents, reflecting reported National Agricultural Statistics Service prices during the first quarter of the marketing year and expectations for future marketings and prices. The soybean meal price was forecast at $295 per short ton, down $5. The soybean oil price is unchanged at 53 cents per pound.
Foreign 2025-26 oilseed production was raised 2.4 million tons mainly on higher soybean production partly offset by lower cottonseed and rapeseed output. For sunflower seed, higher production for Argentina was offset by lower production for Russia. Rapeseed production was also lowered for Russia.
The 2025-26 global soybean outlook includes higher production, increased crush, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Global soybean production was increased 3.1 million tons to 25.7 million tons, reflecting higher crops for Brazil and the U.S., but lower output for China.
Brazil soybean production was raised 3 million tons to 178 million tons on beneficial weather conditions in the Center West during the peak of the growing season. Further, positive early-season conditions and consistent rainfall in the south of Brazil also bolsters yield prospects, especially compared to previous years when the region faced drought.
Crush estimates raised
Soybean crush and soybean meal exports were raised for Brazil and the U.S., and paired with higher soybean meal imports for the European Union. EU soybean crush and soybean imports were lowered on higher imported soybean meal supplies.
Global soybean exports for 2025-26 were reduced 0.1 million tons to 187.6 million tons as higher exports for Brazil were offset by lower U.S. shipments. Global ending stocks were increased 2 million tons to 124.4 million tons, mainly on higher stocks for the U.S. and Brazil.
Wheat
The outlook for 2025-26 U.S. wheat this month was for slightly larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and larger ending stocks. However, Argentina’s wheat production increased by 250% over the previous year.
U.S. beginning stocks were raised 4 million bushels on stock revisions in the Jan. 12 NASS Grain Stocks report. Feed and residual use were reduced 20 million bushels to 100 million bushels based on smaller-than-expected first-quarter disappearance and residual indicated in the same report. Seed use was lowered by 1 million bushels to 61 million bushels, partly based on the NASS Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report.
Exports remained unchanged at 900 million bushels, but there were offsetting by-class changes. Projected ending stocks were raised 25 million bushels to 926 million bushels, up 8% from the previous year. The season-average farm price was lowered $0.10 per bushel to $4.90.
The global wheat outlook for 2025-26 was for larger supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. Supplies were raised 4.3 million tons to 1,102.2 million tons primarily on higher production for Argentina and Russia that more than offsets a reduction for Turkey. With more than 90% of the wheat harvest in Argentina complete, the production forecast was raised 3.5 million tons to a record 27.5 million tons, nearly 50% larger than the previous year.
The production forecast for Russia was also increased, up 2 million tons to 89.5 million tons based on higher preliminary yields reported by Rosstat. Global consumption was raised 0.9 million tons to 823.9 million tons, primarily on larger use in Russia, Ukraine and Morocco. World trade is 1.1 million tons higher at 219.8 million tons as larger exports for Argentina and Kazakhstan are only partly offset by lower forecasts for the EU and Ukraine. Projected global ending stocks were raised 3.4 million tons to 278.3 million tons, primarily on increases for Russia and Argentina.
David Murray can be reached at [email protected].
