HPJ Talk: Ken on what the WASDE is signaling for corn, soybeans, and what comes next
Conversations that move production agriculture forward.
In this episode of HPJ Talk, Dave sat down with Ken (Polaris Analytics & Consulting) to talk about the work behind the numbers—and what producers can do with the signals showing up in today’s market data. Ken shared how his career in data analysis (including time with USDA) shaped the way he approaches strategy: start with the facts, synthesize what matters, and pressure-test decisions against real return on investment.
Along the way, the conversation covers the return of key USDA reporting after a shutdown period, what stood out in the most recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), why U.S. corn exports have surprised to the upside, and how the soybean market continues to evolve beyond the headlines about China.
Turning data into decisions
Ken described Polaris as a continuation of the work he’s done for decades—helping businesses and organizations take large, complicated datasets and turn them into usable insight. The end goal is simple: make better strategic decisions, whether that means greenlighting an investment or choosing not to go down a path that won’t pay.
He also highlighted his ongoing work with Bound Media Group brands, including regular columns and market-focused analysis intended to help readers understand what has happened, what’s ahead, and what’s still unknown.
What the latest WASDE suggested
On the crop side, Ken noted that yield and production updates—especially for corn and soybeans—didn’t always move as much as the broader industry expected. But the bigger story, in his view, is how supply, usage, and ending stocks interact at a global level as the market transitions from U.S. harvest toward South America’s production cycle later in the year.
Why corn exports have been strong
Ken pointed to a mix of factors that can support export demand: competitive pricing, timing and availability in the global market, and steady buying from key destinations. Mexico remains a cornerstone market, and he also noted continued movement into other regions, including parts of Central America and Southeast Asia.
Soybeans: building demand beyond China
While China remains a market worth watching, Ken emphasized the importance of diversified demand. He discussed how commodity organizations have worked to grow relationships and usage in other regions where population, incomes, and protein demand are increasing—creating more pathways for U.S. soybeans and soybean meal.
He also touched on structural changes in the U.S. soybean complex: more crush capacity coming online, more soybean oil demand tied to renewable fuels, and the resulting opportunities—and challenges—created by rising soybean meal supply.
Sustainability, carbon intensity, and transportation advantages
Sustainability standards and verification continue to gain momentum globally. Ken discussed how requirements like deforestation-related rules (especially in Europe) are shaping conversations about traceability and certification.
He also highlighted a point that’s easy to overlook: transportation matters. The U.S. has long benefited from efficient waterborne and rail systems that can lower costs and emissions compared with truck-heavy supply chains. As carbon accounting becomes more sophisticated, those advantages may become more visible—especially if systems capture the full “field-to-market” picture.
Ken’s message to producers
Ken’s closing advice centered on business fundamentals: keep an eye on true cost of production, avoid chasing maximum yield at any cost, and focus on marginal returns. In volatile policy and price environments, the farm balance sheet matters as much as the supply-and-demand balance table.
HPJ Talk delivers conversations and training that move production agriculture forward—webinars, interviews, and deep dives for farmers, ranchers, and ag professionals.
