The latest updates to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released April 11 increased estimates of corn used for ethanol and feed and reduced ending stocks.
Corn used for ethanol was raised by 25 million bushels to 5.4 billion bushels, based on data through February from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for the month of March.
Feed and residual use was increased by 25 million bushels to 5.7 billion bushels based on indicated disappearance during the December-February quarter. With no supply changes and use rising, ending stocks were lowered by 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion bushels. The season-average farm price was lowered 5 cents to $4.70 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2023-24 was forecast 2.3 million tons lower to 1,505.1 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for declines in production, trade and ending stocks.
Lower corn production, exports
Foreign corn production was forecast lower as cuts for South Africa, Argentina, Mexico and Moldova were partially offset by increases for the European Union and the Philippines. Corn production was cut for South Africa as a continuation of drought during March further reduces yield prospects.
Argentina and Mexico were both lowered, reflecting a decline in yield expectations. EU corn production was raised, mostly reflecting increases for Hungary, Poland, Spain and France that were partly offset by declines for Romania, Slovakia and Bulgaria.
Major global trade changes for 2023-24 include lower forecast corn exports for South Africa, India and Tanzania but an increase for Russia. Corn imports were lowered for the EU, Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Thailand, Cuba and Kenya but raised for Mexico.
Foreign corn ending stocks were unchanged, mostly reflecting declines for Mexico and South Africa that were offset by small increases for several countries. Global corn ending stocks, at 318.3 million tons, were down by 1.4 million from last month.
Soy outlook
The outlook for the United States soybean supply and use for 2023-24 includes lower imports, residual and exports and higher ending stocks. Soybean trade was reduced on pace to date and expectations for future shipments.
With the trade changes and slightly lower residual, soybean ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 340 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023-24 was forecast at $12.55 per bushel, down 10 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices remained unchanged at $380 per short ton and 49 cents per pound, respectively.
Global soybean forecasts mostly unchanged
Global 2023-24 soybean supply and demand forecasts include lower production, exports, crush and nearly unchanged ending stocks. Soybean production was lowered mainly for South Africa on drought conditions during the season, which negatively impacted yield potential. Partly offsetting this was a higher production forecast for Paraguay, up 0.2 million tons to 10.5 million.
Global soybean exports were lowered 0.5 million tons to 173.1 million mainly on lower exports for the United States and South Africa, partly offset by higher shipments for Paraguay. Imports were lowered for Indonesia, Russia, Algeria and the U.S. but raised for the EU. Global soybean ending stocks remained nearly unchanged with higher stocks for the U.S., offset by lower stocks for Canada, Iran and Russia.
David Murray can be reached at [email protected].
