Less is more approach with beef production 

U.S. beef producers are some of the most productive members of the beef industry in the world. The cowherd is the smallest it’s been in decades, but still the pounds of retail product on the scale are getting heavier. 

Cowherd numbers have changed through the years, but those who care for those herds have changed, too. Some have beefed up their herds in certain ways, while others might have found better markets for their cattle. It all depends on what is working. 

Terrell Platt, a CattleFax analyst, told Cattle U attendees in June at the Manhattan, Kansas, event, that he believes production numbers have improved because of several advancements. 

“I think it’s a testament to our commitment to animal husbandry practices, investing in genetics, investment in different practices that allow us to be so efficient because we’ve been able to actually achieve record beef production with some of the fewest cow numbers dating back to the 1950s,” he said. 

Platt said looking back through the years, cattle imports likely peaked in the 1970s, and there’s been a decline or revision ever since. 

“And through that we’ve been able to still increase our beef production in that phase,” he said. 

He doesn’t think the cattle numbers will ever get as high as they once were, but production levels will continue to provide the retail product consumers seek. 

Dan Basse of AgResource Company told attendees at the recent Certified Angus Beef Feeding Quality Forum in Dodge City, Kansas, that beef/dairy cross calves could help keep production numbers up and fulfill the demand needs.  

“Nonetheless, I struggle with this idea,” he said. “Every year I need 900,000 additional beef calves to fill the hole in demand. Where am I going to get those supplies from? We can all feed our animals out to much heavier weights? That’s one thing we can do. And if you got extra pounds, that means you can have extra beef.” 

That might not be the best answer, though. He sees a solution coming from the dairy industry. A 1,000-cow dairy herd can produce enough beef/dairy cross calves to garner an extra $100,000.  

“To me, we can make up some of the deficit through the dairy industry,” he said. “I think the dairy industry and their dairy beef programs are something that will be with us for a long period of time.” 

Finished fed cattle have been trending toward the “little too heavy side,” and the retail sector is weakening. Basse sees the cattle market starting to come down with the seasonality of the market.  

“Our forecast is that cash cattle prices will come down near the $1.75, $1.80 mark,” he said. “We say that because when I look at the poor or very poor ratings of pasture conditions across the United States, they’ve improved. The numbers are not as bad as they’ve been, and when I look at cow slaughter as a percentage of the total, we are starting to retain some animals.” 

Auction prices are lower, and there have been some poorer quality animals being sold at cheaper price levels, which influences the index, he said.  Feeder cattle supplies at the auctions are relatively high, but Basse doesn’t see that holding on.  

“I don’t believe this is something that’s lasting,” he said. “We still have a general structural shortage of supply. For those of you in the cow-calf business, the times have never been better.” 

Expansion could happen if pasture conditions hold in 2025, but it won’t be a full expansion. Moving on, Basse looked at the retail beef prices and said they’re at record highs.  

“Not only have we been able to push beef out the door. We’ve been able to do so at higher and higher prices,” he said. “In fact, when I go back and look at the monthly changes of beef and retail sector, there’s only been 14 months since 2017 that there’s been a month to month decline in U.S. meat prices. Talk about demand. What a change.” 

Developments like that, Basse said, are a testament to what CAB and the industry are doing to get the consumer to pay higher prices over time. 

He is concerned about the feed markets and suggested producers get their feed supplies locked in, particularly for corn. 

“My concern is about the volatility in all of these markets going forward,” he said. “I don’t care whether you’re in the stock market or whether you’re in the dollar, or whether you’re in the commodity markets. I’m very, very concerned down the road about the overall volatility of the markets, and agriculture is not going to be immune from the flows of capital that continue to come in and out.” 

Kylene Scott can be reached at 620-227-1804 or [email protected].