Red meat and poultry production will be raised for 2024, according to the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.
Higher beef, broiler and turkey production drove the forecast, which was partially offset by a decline in pork production.
Beef production was raised due to higher dressed weights, and cow slaughter more than offset lower expected steer and heifer processing. WASDE projects 27.025 billion pounds to be processed, which was up from 26.967 billion pounds in 2023.
Glynn Tonsor, a professor in the department of agricultural economics at Kansas State University, said the report was not a surprise to him.
“The industry has adapted to delayed breeding herd expansion, lower feed costs and expected lower feeder (hence) fed cattle volumes,” he said.
With the given relationships involved with the heavier dressed weights it continues to be part of the response in the market.
Pork was projected at 27.858 billion pounds, which was up from 27.302 billion pounds in 2023. Broiler production was estimated at 47.184 billion pounds, which was up above 46.387 billion pounds in 2023.
Pork production was lowered on a slower pace of processing in the fourth quarter and slightly lighter dressed weights.
Broiler and turkey production was raised due to data reported through the third quarter. Egg production is lowered due to reduction of the laying flock as a result of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza-related culling through early November.
Tonsor said, in the past, pork and poultry production was often tied with the holiday seasons, but that has been reduced some over recent decades, and change has impacted beef, too.
“Demand remains seasonal when we consider summer grilling, and this is growing with population shifts to Southern states and winter holiday celebrations,” he said.
He added there is data that shows meat products besides turkey have gained in popularity for winter holidays, and he expects that trend to continue.
The cattle price forecast for the fourth quarter of 2024 was raised based on recent prices, $186.68 per hundredweight, and the continued strength in beef demand and that was expected to remain in 2025.
The 2024 hog price forecast was also raised on recent prices, $61.05 per hundredweight, because of strong pork demand. The 2025 forecast was raised on tighter pork supplies supporting prices in the first half of 2025. The 2024 broiler price, 129.4 cents per pound, was raised based on current and higher prices that are expected to carry into the first quarter of 2025. Turkey prices are pegged at 94 cents a pound.
Egg prices for 2024 were also raised, 285.7 cents per dozen, and tight supplies and a similar forecast remains for the first and second quarters as supplies recover.
A look ahead
For 2025, the beef production is raised due to heavier expected dressed weights and higher expected steer and heifer processing, partially stemming from higher-than-previously-expected placements during the second half of 2024. WASDE as of now estimates beef production at 26,280 million pounds.
The pork production was lowered due to reduced first quarter processing and lower dressed weights. Broiler production is raised based on recent hatchery data that suggests higher production during the first quarter.
“Overall I see 2024 progressing to likely end with improving domestic meat demand,” Tonsor said. “If we proceed into 2025 with household financial sentiment improving, there is reason for optimism regarding domestic meat demand.”
Notable numbers
The beef export forecast for 2024 was raised based on reported data through September, and the 2025 the forecast was raised based on relatively higher expected global demand. Exports were at 2.96 billion pounds with imports at 4.515 billion pounds.
“I expect a bit higher beef imports, compared to historical volumes, for the next couple of years as our domestic availability declines,” he said. “Historically, we see this such that U.S. consumers see less variation in volume available than exists in domestic production.”
The beef import forecast for 2024 was raised on recent trade data and stronger than expected imports from Oceania and South America during the fourth quarter.
For 2025, beef imports were raised based on continued expected strong demand for processing beef. WASDE estimates imports at 4.51 billion pounds and exports at 2.7 billion pounds.
The pork export forecast for 2024 was up slightly based on September data at 7.153 billion pounds. For 2025, the forecast was lowered based on production forecast reductions and relatively weaker expected demand in several key markets during the first half of the year.
The broiler export forecast for 2024 was lowered as higher reported exports for the third quarter are more than offset by lower expected forecasts in the fourth quarter. The fourth quarter outlook is based on expected price competition from global exporters, particularly Brazil. The 2025 export broiler forecast was also reduced.
Turkey exports in 2024 are reduced slightly based on reported data through the third quarter. The turkey export forecast for 2025 was unchanged.
For beef producers, Tonsor said his advice is to focus on matters they can influence, such as their own productions costs.
“You can only manage what you measure so careful bookkeeping is encouraged,” Tonsor said. “More broadly, watching trends on eventual herd expansion and strength of beef demand is also helpful for broader industry awareness.”
WASDE is a report authorized by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dave Bergmeier can be reached at 620-227-1822 or [email protected].
