Over the past week, precipitation was greatest in portions of the Southeast and coastal areas of northern California.
Widespread precipitation was recorded from Arkansas into the Midwest and along much of the eastern seaboard from the Mid-Atlantic up into New England. Much of the Plains, Southwest, and Rocky Mountains were quite dry during this period as well as much of the Florida peninsula.
Temperatures were cooler than normal over the northern Plains and much of the Midwest with departures of 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit below normal. Above normal temperatures were recorded over the northern Rocky Mountains, the Southern Plains and into the South, where departures were 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Most other locations observed temperatures near normal.
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. (Map courtesy of NDMC.)
South
Temperatures were warmer than normal over most of the region with departures of 5 to 10 degrees above normal. The wettest areas were in eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and northern Mississippi, where most recorded 150 to 200% of normal precipitation.
Moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions improved over much of northern, western, and central Arkansas and in far eastern Oklahoma.
Moderate drought expanded in east Texas while severe drought contracted in north Texas and portions of east Texas.
Midwest
Temperatures varied over the region with the northern portions 4 to 6 degrees below normal and the southern portions 2 to 4 degrees above normal. The wettest areas included Missouri and southeast Iowa. Most of western Iowa and Minnesota were drier than normal.
Improvements were made to the moderate drought in southwest and northeast Missouri with improvements to abnormally dry conditions as well. Southern to southeast Iowa also had abnormally dry conditions and moderate drought improved. Portions of Minnesota had some moderate and severe drought improvement as the wetter pattern was reassessed to account for further improvements from past events.
High Plains
It was a dry for most of the region with only areas of southeastern Nebraska, northeastern Kansas, northern North Dakota and the Plains of eastern Wyoming and Montana showing any above-normal precipitation.
Temperatures were cooler than normal over the Dakotas with departures of 3 to 6 degrees below normal while most of the rest of the region was 3 to 6 degrees above normal. Also, abnormally dry conditions improved over southwest and southeast Kansas while severe drought improved in northeast Wyoming and into western South Dakota.
The extreme drought in northeast Nebraska was reassessed and removed as the convergence of the indicators at extreme drought levels no longer existed, even with some long-term signals still showing some dryness in the extreme levels.
West
Most of the southern and southwest portions of the region were dry. After an early start to the snow season, many areas have seen it drop off considerably and are below normal for this time of year. The wettest areas were in northern California into the Great Basin and southern Idaho and Montana.
Temperatures were mainly 3 to 6 degrees above normal over the region with only those areas recording the most rains being below normal. Even with the precipitation in areas, changes to the drought status in the region were minimal. Moderate drought improved in southwest Wyoming. Extreme drought expanded in northwest Wyoming while northern Colorado had abnormally dry and moderate drought expand slightly.
Looking ahead
Over the next five to seven days, it is anticipated that the best chances for precipitation will be over the Pacific Northwest, Midwest, and the eastern third of the United States. Much of the central and southern Plains, Southwest, and Rocky Mountains will expect little to no precipitation.
Temperatures during this period will be above normal over the western half of the country with the greatest departures expected over the Southwest where it could be 10 to 13 degrees above normal. The coolest temperatures will be along the East Coast where departures of 7 to 10 degrees below normal can be anticipated from North Carolina up to New York.
The 6- to 10-day outlooks show that the probability of warmer-than-normal temperatures covers almost the entire country outside of the East Coast from North Carolina to Massachusetts where probabilities lean to near normal conditions.
The highest probabilities of above-normal temperatures will be in the northern Plains and upper Midwest. The greatest chances of above-normal precipitation will be in the Pacific Northwest and portions of the South. The best chances of below-normal precipitation are in the Southwest and northern New England.
Brian Fuchs is with the National Drought Mitigation Center.
