Milk production in 2026 was forecast to increase compared to the current year as it is driven by an expanding milk cow herd and slightly higher milk per cow, according to May’s U.S. Department of Agriculture’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
Milk production is estimated at 227.3 billion pounds in May 2025 and in 2026 it is forecast to increase to 227.9 billion pounds.
Commercial exports are forecast to be lower than in 2025 on a fat basis, but higher on a skim-solids basis due to additional exports of whey products. Commercial imports are forecast to increase on a fat basis primarily on imports of butter. Imports on a skim-solids basis are forecast to increase slightly. Domestic use in 2026 is expected to increase on both a fat basis and skim-solids basis. Dairy products are forecast to be lower for butter, nonfat dry milk, cheese and whey, compared with 2025, primarily due to increased milk supplies.
The WASDE report indicates Class III and Class IV prices are also forecast lower in 2026. The all-milk price in 2026 was forecast to be $21.15 per hundredweight.
The milk production forecast was raised from the previous month on expectations of an increased cow herd and faster growth rate in output per cow, which was based on the latest NASS production report.
The import forecast on a fat basis was lowered on reduced expectations of butter shipments. Exports were also raised in most categories.
The butter, cheese, nonfat dry milk and whey price forecasts were all raised from the previous month based on recent prices and increased export demand expected for the second half of the year. The Class III and Class IV milk prices were also raised and the all-milk price for 2025 was increased to $21.60 per hundredweight. The price is expected to drop to $21.15 per hundredweight in May 2026.
Dave Bergmeier can be reached at 620-227-1822 or [email protected].
