Hopeful is the keyword when experts are asked about a recently announced trade deal with China when it comes to meat exports.
The U.S. Meat Export Federation President and CEO Dan Halstrom said in a news release he was encouraged by the progress being made in trade negotiations and appreciated the Trump administration’s emphasis on restoring market access for United States agricultural exports.
“If China follows through on its commitment to suspend retaliatory tariffs announced since March 4, and to suspend or remove all retaliatory non-tariff countermeasures taken since that date, that puts U.S. pork in a much more competitive position in the Chinese market,” Halstrom said. “If the removal of non-tariff trade barriers means that China will promptly renew the beef plants and cold storage registrations that it has allowed to expire over the past nine months, this will restore access to a critical beef export market.”
Halstrom said China’s recent delisting of some U.S. beef plants for technical violations is also a retaliatory measure that must be addressed. “We are anxious to see further progress on these issues.”
Uncertainty on the trade front has been elevated throughout 2025, said Glynn Tonsor, a professor in the department of agricultural economics at Kansas State University. For the first three quarters, the beef and cattle markets rallied largely “ignoring” this uncertainty.
“I would argue those strong prices would have been even higher earlier in 2025 if there was less disruption to U.S. beef exports,” Tonsor said. “As shown in October, the beef and cattle market complex remains suspect to sudden changes. On the beef import and export front it seems very likely that sizeable changes will continue to be discussed and/or become reality leading to ongoing volatility in the broader marketplace.”
Tariffs have hit hard
Erin Borror, a vice president for economic analysis with USMEF, said tariffs had made it difficult for U.S. meat to get to Chinese consumers. Pork and most pork variety meat was down 37% in February then rose to 57% in the spring, and beef and beef variety meat went from 12% in February to 32% in the spring. Effective Nov. 10 the rates were 47% for pork and 22% for beef.
“We had a tragic situation for about six weeks in April-May with the massive tariff escalation until the Geneva Joint Statement was implemented May 14, and then it lived in 90-day periods of uncertainty,” she said, adding what was effective Nov. 10 was slicing 10% off the tariffs.
The other uncertainty was around Section 301 (IP) 2018 retaliation and that was temporarily waived since March 2020, Borror said. China had scheduled an end to issuance of new “exclusions” on Oct. 30, and product clearing after Dec. 13 would have been subject to an additional 30%. Those exclusions are now extended to Dec. 31, 2026.
Dramatic drop
U.S. beef and variety meat exports to China in 2024 was 179,000 metric tons with a value of $1.6 billion. Pork and variety meat exports to China in 2024, were 467,000 metric tons with a value of $1.11 billion. Both were the third largest market.
From January to October, USMEF estimates that beef and variety exports were 56,000 metric tons, a decline of 62% and valued at $461 million, down 63% and equated to a $832 million decline from a year ago. Pork and variety meat exports from January to October are estimated at 314,0000 metric tons, a decline of 18% and valued at $717.5 million, down 21% or a $190 million decline from a year ago.
“The China market was mostly closed to U.S. beef when China allowed the majority of our production facilities to expire in their registration on March 16,” Borror said. “Since that time, the difficulties for U.S. beef have only intensified. Now we have a multi-layered and very complicated market closure.”
China suspended 12 facilities from June through October and there are 31 beef facilities that have been suspended since 2022, she said. Even if China updated its facility registration system many of the U.S.’s most important plants are suspended and would be unable to export to China.
Other complications have also made shipping to China nearly impossible.
“There is a need for detailed U.S. engagement with China to enable a true market reopening,” Borror said. “Finally, China is conducting a beef safeguard investigation, announced Dec. 27, 2024, and the results are expected in November. “This could add one more layer of restrictions and complications to the market. China is the biggest beef importer in the world, so action could impact the global beef market.”
The U.S. beef industry was possibly the biggest beneficiary of the Phase One Agreement with China, she said, and the Chinese need to return to that agreement. The U.S. beef industry has seen a lost opportunity estimated at $150 to $165 per head in 2025, or about $4 billion annually.
China is critical to maximizing carcass values because the China “bid” causes other Asian markets to pay more for short plate, short ribs, chuck short ribs, and omasum, she said.
“China does not compete with American consumers for U.S. beef,” Borror said. “But they are critical to driving overall carcass value, which is needed now more than ever in this herd-rebuild phase and with record-high costs of production.”
The U.S. had only supplied less than 5% of China’s beef imports, but the U.S. was the largest supplier of grain-fed beef. Australia has taken that lead supplier position for grain-fed beef. South America leads on overall volume with Brazil by far China’s largest beef supplier, accounting for 49% of imports, followed by Argentina with a 16% share.
China is the largest beef-importing country in the world, with imports through September totaling 2.16 million metric tons, valued at $11.245 billion.
“Beef consumption is small relative to pork, but they have a massive impact on the global beef market, and potential for further growth in beef consumption,” Borror said.
In effect, China remains closed to U.S. beef, she said. “This is a huge, multi-billion loss to our industry. We have also lost key customers to Australia. The longer we are out of the market, the harder it is to regain those customers. Australia’s grain-fed exports to China in January to October were up 58% to 122,000 metric tons, with China emerging as their top customer for grain-fed beef. U.S. beef exports were down 63% to 56,000 metric tons.”
Pork
China is currently in a supply glut, with record-large domestic production, Borror said. Consumer demand overall is also tepid, and the foodservice industry is struggling with the continued consumer downgrading, she added.
“So, it’s a combination of abundant supply and challenging demand,” Borror said. “But China is still the top customer for U.S. pork variety meat (feet, stomachs, head items) and there is no market that can take the volume that China takes at the price that China pays.”
Without the China market, these items will end up in rendering plants or in landfills, she said. USMEF estimates the value of China at $8 to $10 per head.
“Fortunately, exports have been flowing at the 57% duty, but at lower prices, so less margin,” Borror said.
Having the tariff rate reduced to 47% will help and hopefully having certainty around that tariff level will be helpful for exporters, she said. China is also the largest pork importer in the world, with imports through September totaling 1.64 million metric tons, valued at $3.4 billion; the U.S. holds 15% import market share with the European Union being the largest supplier, with a 53% share.
EU pork is now subject to preliminary antidumping duties (company-specific, ranging from 15% to 62% and to be finalized in December) and Canadian pork also faces a 25% retaliatory duty, Borror said.
“At this point we see a shrinking global market for pork variety meat. However, stability and the reduction in the U.S. tariff will help enable our pork variety meat exports to China over the next year.”
China remains a critical market for U.S. pork variety meats.
“We expect those exports to continue, and stability in the tariff rate should help exports flow more smoothly,” Borror said. “However, a tariff of 47% obviously takes margin out of the business and is cost-prohibitive for some items, especially when China’s hog prices are low.
“The current situation is just another détente, not a breakthrough, and zero progress has been made on beef. We remain hopeful for engagement during this next phase.”
Tonsor said it is important to appreciate that international trade relationships are many years, even decades in the making. “I encourage broader awareness of that as economic viability of U.S. agriculture (including meat-livestock) hinges on it,” he said.
“I also would highlight that when uncertainty and risk elevates, investment is typically slowed or delayed,” Tonsor said. “I suspect that the recent elevation of volatility, triggered by a new source of uncertainty, as experienced by the beef and cattle markets in October will in fact slow previously planned herd expansion efforts—likely not an outcome all ‘at the table’ recently would have desired.”
National Pork Producers Council President and Ohio pork producer Duane Stateler released the following statement on behalf of the pork industry in response to the White House fact sheet on the latest U.S.-China trade relations.
“In a win for U.S. agriculture and America’s pork producers, China has suspended its retaliatory tariffs set in March. We are very pleased to see the Trump administration answer the widespread call of agriculture, including persistent requests from the National Pork Producers Council, to negotiate for tariff removal and allow business with China to return to a more market-driven norm unburdened by these costly taxes.
Dave Bergmeier can be reached at 620-227-1822 or [email protected].
