‘Quiet’ WASDE shows continued corn demand

The Feb. 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report was characterized as “quiet” by most of the ag press, with few changes.

One notable change was the uptick in corn export estimates of 100 million bushels, indicating continued strong corn demand, possibly linked to weaker United States dollar exchange rates.

“Without the strong export numbers, we’d be in a much worse situation,” said Kansas State University economist Dan O’Brien, speaking on KSU’s Ag Today podcast.

The 2025-26 U.S. corn outlook was for greater exports and lower ending stocks. Exports were raised 100 million bushels to 3.3 billion bushels, reflecting sales and shipments to date. Export sales and inspection data continued to show robust foreign demand during January and imply total shipments during the September-January period will most likely exceed 1.3 billion bushels.

With no supply changes and use rising, corn ending stocks were down by 100 million bushels to 2.1 billion bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers remained unchanged at $4.10 per bushel.

Global coarse grain production for 2025-26 was virtually unchanged at 1.59 billion tons. The 2025-26 foreign coarse grain supply and use outlook was essentially unchanged from last month. Foreign corn production was down fractionally, as a decline for Mexico was mostly offset by an increase for the European Union.

Corn exports for 2025-26 were raised for the U.S. and lowered for Ukraine. Corn imports were higher for Iran, Mexico, Turkey, Lebanon, and Vietnam, but lowered for the EU.

Foreign corn ending stocks were higher, reflecting increases for Ukraine and Iran partly offset by a decline for Mexico. Global corn stocks, at 289 million tons, were down by 1.9 million. Speaking on the Ag Today podcast, Guy Allen, senior economist for the International Grain Program Institute at Kansas State University, said a weaker U.S. dollar is likely helping to drive the continued strong demand for U.S. corn.

Allen and O’Brien also discussed how recent Chinese purchases of about 360,00 metric tons of U.S. sorghum are helping to move some of the “piles” of stored sorghum out of Kansas elevators.

Few surprises in soybean balance sheet
The U.S. 2025-26 soybean supply and use projections remained virtually unchanged, with the season-average soybean price parked at $10.20 per bushel. Soybean meal and oil prices also remained unchanged at $295 per short ton and 53 cents per pound, respectively.

Global 2025-26 soybean supply and use forecasts included increased production, crush and ending stocks. Production for Brazil is raised 2 million tons to 180 million tons on higher area and yield, reflecting beneficial weather throughout the season and state-level reporting. Brazil’s soybean crop is coming online to world markets beginning in February.

Production for Paraguay was increased 0.5 million tons to 11.5 million tons on favorable rainfall over the season.

Soybean crush was raised for Brazil and Paraguay, driven by higher global soybean meal demand, particularly for the EU based on import pace to date. Similar to the U.S., growth in EU oilseed meal demand grew substantially in 2024-25 due to competitive prices.

In 2025-26, the growth was expected to moderate with a higher share of rapeseed meal, given the recovery of the crop this marketing year.

China was reported to be considering buying up to 8 million tons more of U.S. soybeans above previous commitments. Global soybean import demand in the WASDE remained nearly unchanged from last month, indicating that if China bought more from the U.S., global soybean exports would likely shift, with more U.S. shipments to China and fewer to other markets.

Global soybean ending stocks were increased 1.1 million tons to 125.5 million tons on higher stocks for Brazil. Another notable revision is higher 2025-26 palm oil production for Malaysia, up 0.5 million tons to 20.2 million tons.

Wheat outlook

 The outlook for 2025-26 U.S. wheat was for unchanged supplies, modestly lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and slightly higher ending stocks. Domestic use was lowered on reduced food use as indicated by the NASS Flour Milling Products report, issued on Feb. 2. This reduction was partially offset by a fractional increase in seed use.

Ending stocks were raised to 931 million bushels, 9% higher than last year and the largest since 2019-20. The projected 2025-26 season-average farm price remained at $4.90 per busshels.

This month’s 2025-26 global wheat outlook was for slightly lower supplies, fractionally greater consumption, higher trade, and lower ending stocks. Supplies were projected to decline 0.6 million tons to 1,101.6 million tons on the combination of reduced beginning stocks and lower production.

Argentina’s increase was more than offset by lower production for Turkey and Mongolia. World trade was 2.2 million tons higher at 222 tons million on greater exports for Argentina and Canada more than offsetting reduced EU exports. Argentina’s exports were raised 2 million tons to a record 18 million tons on robust December and January shipments and highly competitive export prices. Projected 2025-26 global ending stocks are reduced 0.7 million tons to 277.5 million tons, but remain at a 5-year high with significant year-to-year increases for all major exporters.

David Murray can be reached at [email protected].