Shock and awe in Rural America as Middle East conflict plays out

If you were worried about the relatively high costs of agricultural inputs on Feb. 27, you probably had no idea about what you were about to witness the next day. 

On Feb. 28, the United States, along with Israel, launched Operation Epic Fury, a coordinated military offensive against Iran. President Donald Trump originally stated the goals were to eliminate Iran’s nuclear and missile programs and to encourage regime change.

“President Donald J. Trump is doing what presidents over the last five decades have refused to do — eliminate the threat once and for all. By destroying Iran’s missiles, annihilating their navy, and ensuring they can never obtain a nuclear weapon, the Trump Administration’s bold and decisive action is protecting American lives and advancing American interests,” the White House said in a statement.

What agricultural interests saw—just as many were trying to buy key nutrients and head into the 2026 planting season—was a bit different. Shock and awe on the horizon in their hometowns.

U.S. farmers are bracing for a system shock resulting from the disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the impact on fertilizer and fuel availability and prices.

Fertilizer distributors in some areas are not delivering product amid market uncertainty in the Middle East, several analysts and producers said March 9, and many warn that the current supply crunch could have lasting impacts on U.S. production and prices.

“I called my fertilizer distributor to get a price and some fertilizer delivered, and he said, ‘I’m sorry, we will not price or deliver fertilizer until we see how this shakes out,’” Harry Ott, president of the South Carolina Farm Bureau, told reporters during a press call Monday.

Following recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively paralyzed amid security threats and insurers pausing or reducing coverage for vessels in the Gulf.

The conflict has roiled nitrogen fertilizer markets, in particular. Qatar, Egypt, Iran, Oman, and Saudi Arabia are all major urea exporters, according to data from StoneX, and the transportation challenges in the Middle East have sent fertilizer prices soaring.

Doug Wright, a fertilizer consultant in Kansas, told Agri-Pulse that he spoke with a urea seller on March 9 who is only delivering to clients that had pre-pay contracts.

The situation is equally bleak for other nitrogen fertilizers, Wright said. He told Agri-Pulse he had also spoken to three Urea Ammonium Nitrate manufacturers on March 9 who reported full order books through May.

“We’re real concerned about the position that we’re in right now,” American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall told reporters.

Asking Trump to intervene

Duvall urged President Trump to intervene in a letter that lays out several recommendations.

The letter states, “Like oil, global fertilizer markets are highly vulnerable to disruptions in maritime transit routes, especially through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping corridor for key fertilizer materials and finished fertilizer. Further, the recent energy production halts in the Middle East will affect the price and availability of many downstream products farmers depend upon. These supply chain shocks are expected to drive already record-high input prices even higher at a time when farm margins are already extremely tight and many farmers are underwater.”

An analysis by American Farm Bureau economists reveals the seriousness of the situation, as explained in a Market Intel report. It points out that large volumes of urea, ammonia, phosphates, sulfur, and petroleum produced in Gulf countries move through the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally  “Countries exposed to disruption in the region account for nearly 49% of global urea exports and about 30% of global ammonia exports, reflecting the concentration of fertilizer production and export capacity in and near the Persian Gulf.”

The letter to the president goes on to explain in stark terms the potential consequences of inaction, stating, “Without strategically prioritizing the delivery of critical farm inputs such as urea, ammonia, nitrogen, phosphate, and sulfur-based products, the U.S. risks a shortfall in crops. Not only is this a threat to our food security —and by extension our national security —such a production shock could contribute to inflationary pressures across the U.S. economy.”

The letter lists seven recommendations to lessen the impact of the expected fertilizer shortage. They range from utilizing the U.S. Navy to provide safe transit for fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to leveraging federal tools such as those available through the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation to address insurance or financing barriers for vessels transporting fertilizer cargo.

How and when all of these events will play out is still anyone’s guess but could impact how voters feel in upcoming elections. Understandably, politicians are taking notice.

“I’m hoping this is just a blip in the screen. I’m hoping that this war is over very soon, and that with it, the prices will come back down. But they were high to start with, so we’ve got challenges ahead of us,”  said Sen Roger Marshall, R-KS, on soaring fertilizer prices following the Iran strikes.

Editor’s note: Sara Wyant is publisher of Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc., www.Agri-Pulse.com.