The holidays conjure up emotions, traditions and tastes.
With the saints’ sugar high fading, Thanksgiving looms large, and visions of sugar plums—and the 12 days of Christmas—are close behind. But what are the holidays without food, and the way it excites the sense of smell and taste?
This year, the scent in the air is higher prices for beef and turkey. The taste? It may shift if families make sacrifices.
Meat prices diverging
Despite record cattle dressed weights, a smaller herd and decade-low slaughter counts have eroded
Imports were already rising (Figure 1) before President Donald Trump encouraged more.
In one year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Choice beef cutout jumped 24% to $390 per hundredweight in August, the last full month before the federal data pause. That is not a record, but the climb is steep.
Turkey tells a sharper story. Since January, wholesale tom turkey prices soared 83% to $1.56 per pound ($156 per cwt). Not a record, but a shock. Production retreated due to avian influenza and consumers shifting away.
Not all proteins are rising. Broiler chicken prices dipped 6% year-over-year to $1.19 per pound ($119 per cwt) in August, the lowest since November 2023. Pork was steady at nearly $1.85 per pound.
For wholesale price trends see Figure 2.
Cattle and turkey slaughter plummet
Cattle slaughter peaked at 3 million head in August 2022 and has slid since.
In August 2025, the number of cattle slaughtered was under 2.3 million head, the lowest since 2015 (Figure 3). Drought, extreme cold, high feed costs, and herd liquidation in the High Plains states are the cited drivers.
Turkey slaughter hit historic lows, totaling: 16.3 million head in August, down 4% year-over-year (Figure 4). Turkeys in cold storage during September totaled 418.3 million pounds, down 8% and the lowest since 1985.
Poultry wins on consumption
Americans are eating more chicken, less pork and slightly more beef.
2024 per capita consumption:
- Chicken: 116+ pounds (+1% vs. 2023)
- Beef: 59 pounds (+1 pound vs. 2023)
- Pork: Less than 50 pounds (down from 52 pounds in 2019)
Consumers love poultry’s value and versatility, see the trends in Figure 5.
Options for the cost-conscious
Now, compare holiday favorites on a per-pound basis, another measure of value.
The price per pound ladder is shown in Figure 6.
Key insights:
- You get 26 times more turkey or chicken than rib roast for the same dollar.
- A $6.49 mocha costs 6.5 times more per pound than turkey.
- Eggnog at $2.15 per pound beats pie and coffee, liquid value.
The bottom line
The holidays bring together family, friends and favorite foods. They do not have to break the bank.
Yes, beef and turkey wholesale prices are high, driven by supply shocks. But chicken and pork are steady, and retail deals abound (especially on loss-leader turkeys and hams).
This is not about downgrading tradition; it is economics. Swap the $26 per pound rib roast for a $2.50 per pound spiral ham. Roast two chickens instead of one turkey. Spike the $2.15 per pound eggnog with a $20 bottle of bourbon. You may wind up feeding more, stressing less, and still savoring the season.
As cattle herds stabilize in 2026 and turkey flocks rebound, relief is coming. Until then, shop the scale or splurge. In the end, enjoy the family time.
Ken Eriksen can be reached at [email protected].
