WASDE report hikes pork, broiler production in fourth quarter

A recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report increased red meat and poultry production in the fourth quarter. 

The Dec. 8 report said red meat and poultry production was raised in the past month but also said lower production occurred. Beef production was unchanged with lower expected cattle processing offset by higher dressed weights. 

The report projects beef production at 26.9 million pounds for 2023. It is projecting about 25.9 million pounds for 2024. Pork processing is estimated at 27.24 million pounds for 2023 and is projecting 27.7 million pounds to be produced in 2024. Total poultry production was estimated at about 52.3 million pounds in 2023 and expects about 52.7 million pounds for 2024. 

Red meat and poultry production is expected to be about 106.5 million pounds in 2023 and has a similar projection in 2024. 

Pork production was raised on higher processing expectations. Broiler product was raised on current slaughter and hatchery data. Turkey production was lowered and egg production was unchanged. 

For 2024, the beef forecast is raised due to higher cattle slaughter and higher dressed weights. The pork production forecast is unchanged. 

Broiler production for the first quarter is lowered on recent hatchery data. Turkey production is lowered based on recent hatchery data and weaker expected returns. Egg production is reduced due to recent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza. 

Beef imports for 2023 were raised on recent data, but exports are lowered. Imports are raised for 2024 on expectations of demand for processing-grade beef. Pork imports and exports for 2023 are raised on recent data. Pork imports for 2024 are raised on a continued pace of shipments from Canada. Pork exports for 2024 are lowered due to weaker demand from Asian markets. The broiler export forecast for 2023 is raised on recent trade data, but 2024 exports were lowered. Turkey exports are raised for 2023 and 2024 based on weaker turkey prices. 

Cattle price forecasts are lowered for the fourth quarter of 2023 and 2024 on recent price movements and as larger expected placements of cattle in late 2023 are marketed in 2024. Hog prices are lowered for the fourth quarter of 2023 and early 2024 based on 

prices to date. Broiler prices for the fourth quarter of 2023 are lowered slightly based on prices to date but are unchanged for 2024. Turkey prices are lowered for fourth-quarter 2023 based on current prices. The turkey prices for 2024 are also lowered due to expected weakness in demand. The egg price forecast for the fourth quarter of 2023 is lowered, reflecting recent price declines. Egg price forecasts for the first half of 2024 are raised, however, on lowered production forecasts. 

Milk production

The milk production forecast for 2023 is lowered from last month due to slower expected growth in milk per cow. Production in 2024 was lowered due to lower milk cow numbers and reduced milk per cow. Production was estimated at 227 billion pounds for 2023 and about 230 billion pounds in 2024. 

The fat basis import forecast for 2023 is raised due to higher imports of cheese. Skim- solids imports are lowered due to fewer shipments of milk protein products. The fat basis export forecast is lowered due to lower butter exports. The skim-solids export forecast is raised due to higher whey product shipments which more than offset lower expected nonfat and skim powder. For 2024, the import forecast is raised on a fat basis, but lowered on a skim-solids basis. Fat basis exports are lowered for 2024 on lower expected butter shipments, while a higher skim-solids basis forecast reflects higher nonfat and skim powder and whey product exports. 

For 2023, based on recent prices, cheese and butter price forecasts are lowered while the nonfat dry milk price is raised. The whey price is unchanged. The Class III and Class IV price forecasts are both lower on lower cheese and butter prices. For 2024, the cheese price forecast is lowered, while butter, NDM, and whey prices are raised. The Class III price forecast is lowered due to lower cheese prices. The Class IV price forecast is raised due to higher butter and NDM price forecasts. The all-milk price forecast for 2023 was lowered to $20.60 per hundredweight. The 2024 all milk price forecast was lowered to $20.25. 

The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates is prepared and released by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. 

Dave Bergmeier can be reached at 620-227-1822 or [email protected]