The dry pattern that has been impacting much of the country has continued into this current period. The wettest areas were along the coast in the Pacific Northwest, with some locations recording over 2 inches of rain for the week.
Other areas receiving some precipitation were in the Four Corners region, the Midwest and parts of the South, but many of these totals were minimal and did little to impact the drought conditions. The southern Plains and South were the warmest regions, with departures of 10 to 12 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. Almost the entire country was warmer than normal, with only areas of the Northeast and Pacific Northwest having near to slightly below normal temperatures.
As the month is ending, many locations will be at or near record dryness across the country. For the Lower 48 states, there has not been this much drought shown on the U.S. Drought Monitor since December 2022. Areas of the Southeast that were impacted by significant precipitation associated with landfalling hurricanes have dried out rapidly, with some locations recording zero precipitation since the hurricanes. Some precipitation development at the end of the current period could help ease conditions into the next week, but that will be determined on the next map.
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. (Map courtesy of NDMC.)
South
Temperatures were well above normal over the region with areas of north Texas and much of eastern Oklahoma 12 to 16 degrees above normal. Some very light rains were reported in central Arkansas, but much of the region was dry. With the fall warmth and dryness impacting the region, drought intensified and expanded. In Oklahoma, the north-central and eastern portions of the state saw severe and extreme drought expand, with some moderate drought expanding in the east.
Widespread degradation took place over much of northern and eastern Texas and into the southern portions of the state, where almost every drought category intensified, most now in severe drought or worse. Moderate and severe drought expanded over portions of West Texas as well. In Arkansas, most of the western portions of the state had degradation, now in severe to extreme drought. Moderate drought expanded over southeast Arkansas.
Midwest
Temperatures were near normal in the eastern portion of the region while the southern and western areas were 4 to 8 degrees above normal. Some rain fell from northern Missouri into southeast Iowa and northern Illinois, but this rain did little to improve the drought that is established over the area.
In southwest Missouri, severe and extreme drought expanded along with a push of moderate drought to the east. Severe drought also expanded along with moderate drought in western and northwest Missouri. In Iowa, moderate and severe drought expanded in the west and eastern portions of the state. Moderate drought expanded in northern Minnesota and severe drought expanded in both the southwest and southeast areas of the state.
High Plains
Dryness again dominated the region with only areas of far southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas, northeast Wyoming and northwest South Dakota recording any significant precipitation.
Coupled with the dryness, temperatures have been unseasonably warm for the region with most all areas 4 to 8 degrees above normal. Drought expanded and intensified across the region this week with severe and extreme drought expanding over western North Dakota, and moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions expanding over the southeast. Severe and extreme drought expanded over much of western and southern South Dakota and also over western and northern Nebraska.
Eastern Nebraska saw both moderate and severe drought expand. In Kansas, severe and extreme drought expanded over the southeast while severe drought expanded over the northeast and western portions of the state. Moderate drought also expanded in western Kansas. In northeast Colorado, moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions expanded, with both moderate and severe drought expanding in southeast Colorado. Southeast Wyoming saw expansion of moderate, severe, and extreme drought while eastern Montana had severe and extreme drought expand to the west.
West
The West was the one region that had substantial precipitation during the week, with rains in western Colorado and central to western Wyoming.
Abnormally dry conditions disappeared from the rest of southwest Colorado. Severe and extreme drought expanded in northern Colorado into southern Wyoming and severe drought expanded in western Wyoming.
Looking ahead
Over the next five to seven days, it is anticipated that the dry pattern will break over much of the Plains, Midwest and into the South, with widespread precipitation from north Texas to Wisconsin.
The western portions of the country will also be in a more active pattern, with the coastal areas, the Great Basin, and part of the Rocky Mountains seeing some precipitation. Temperatures will continue to be warmer than normal out in front of the precipitation, with the eastern Midwest, South, and East all anticipated to be warmer than normal. Cooler- than-normal temperatures will settle in over the West.
The 6- to 10-day outlooks show that the best chance for above-normal temperatures is over the East while much of the West has the best chance for below-normal temperatures centered on the Southwest. The greatest chance for above-normal precipitation is over the southern Rocky Mountains with above normal chances in the Plains and into the Midwest while the greatest chance for below-normal precipitation is over northern California and much of the West.
Brian Fuchs is with the National Drought Mitigation Center.
