The first post-shutdown World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates were released by the U.D. Department of Agriculture Nov. 14. A note explained that due to the lapse in government funding from Oct. 1 through Nov. 12, some United States data sources that are typically used were not available for the November 2025 WASDE.
Larger wheat supplies
The outlook for 2025-26 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies and higher ending stocks, with no change to use. Supplies were raised on greater production, up by 58 million bushels to 1,985 million bushels, on a record all-wheat yield based on the Sept. 30 Small Grains Summary. The season-average farm price was lowered $0.10 per bushel to $5 a bushel as larger global supplies reduced price expectations for the remainder of the marketing year.
The global wheat outlook for 2025-26 was for larger supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. Supplies were projected to increase 11.7 million tons to 1,090.3 million tons on higher production for most of the major wheat exporters including Kazakhstan, Argentina, the European Union, the U.S., Australia, Russia, and Canada.
Global consumption was increased by 4.3 million tons to 818.9 million tons, primarily on higher feed and residual use for Russia, Kazakhstan and the EU. World trade was 2.5 million tons larger at 217.2 million tons, primarily on greater exports for Argentina, Australia and Kazakhstan that were only partly offset by a reduction for Russia. Projected 2025-26 global ending stocks were raised 7.4 million tons to 271.4 million, resulting in what would be the first year-to-year increase in global wheat stocks since 2019-20.
Record corn exports
This month’s 2025-26 U.S. corn outlook is for increases in supply, exports and ending stocks. Total supply was 144 million bushels higher as larger beginning stocks were partially offset by lower production. Beginning stocks were 207 million bushels higher based on the Sept. 30 Grain Stocks report. Corn production was forecast at 16.8 billion bushels, down 62 million bushels from September on a 0.7-bushel reduction in yield to 186 bushels per acre.
Harvested area for grain remained unchanged at 90 million acres. Total use was up 100 million bushels, reflecting a higher export forecast. Exports were raised by 100 million bushels to 3.1 billion bushels reflecting shipments to date. Inspection data imply exports set a monthly record during September and again in October. With supply rising more than use, corn ending stocks were up 44 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers was raised 10 cents to $4 per bushel.
The monthly 2025-26 foreign coarse grain outlook was for larger production, virtually unchanged trade and smaller ending stocks. Foreign corn production was forecast higher reflecting increases for Mexico and the EU that were partly offset by a decline for Egypt. Mexico’s production was raised, reflecting greater area expectations. The EU was higher as an increase for France was partially offset by a reduction for Germany.
Major global trade changes included greater corn exports for the U.S. and South Africa, but a reduction for Ukraine. Corn imports were raised for Iran, Egypt, Venezuela, and the United Kingdom, but lowered for China, the EU and Thailand. Foreign corn ending stocks were reduced, mostly reflecting a decline for China that was partly offset by increases for Argentina, Mexico, and Ukraine. Global corn ending stocks were down fractionally to 281.3 million tons.
Lower soybean yields, stocks for U.S.
U.S. oilseed production for 2025-26 was projected to reach 125.8 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from the previous estimate. The reduction was attributed to lower soybean production, although it was partially offset by higher peanut and cottonseed output. Soybean production was forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, down by 48 million bushels, based on lower yields.
The soybean yield was projected down 0.5 bushels to 53 bushels per acre. Soybean supplies were projected to be 61 million bushels lower than the September forecast, due to lower beginning stocks from the Sept. 30 Grain Stocks report and reduced production.
U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.64 billion bushels, down 50 million bushels from the previous forecast due to lower supplies and higher exports by Brazil and Argentina. In September, Argentina temporarily reduced export taxes on soybeans, leading to an influx of export registrations during the peak U.S. export season. Further, since the last report, the U.S. entered a trade deal with China, which led to higher U.S. prices and narrowed the price spread between U.S. and other major exporters.
While U.S. soybean exports are expected to rise to China for the rest of the marketing year, these higher shipments could be offset by reductions to other markets where the United States no longer holds a large price discount compared to other exporters.
U.S. soybean crush remained unchanged and ending stocks were forecast down marginally. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2025-26 was raised $0.50 to $10.50 per bushel. The soybean meal price was raised $20 to $300 per short ton. The soybean oil price was unchanged at 53 cents per pound. Global oilseed production for 2025-26 was lowered this month mainly on lower soybean and sunflower production partly offset by higher rapeseed and cottonseed. Soybean production was reduced 4.1 million tons on lower output for the U.S., Ukraine and India.
Sunflower seed production was lowered by 1 million tons on lower production for Ukraine, Russia, the EU, and Turkey, partly offset by higher sunflower seed production for Argentina. Global rapeseed production was raised 1.3 million tons on higher production for the EU, Australia, Ukraine, and the UK.
The global 2025-26 soybean supply and demand forecast included lower beginning stocks and production, reduced crush, slightly higher exports, and lower ending stocks. Beginning stocks were lowered 0.2 million tons due to updates to 2024/25 balance sheets. Ending stocks for 2024-25 were lowered for the U.S., the EU, and Argentina, but higher for Brazil and China.
EU ending stocks were lowered due to higher crush. Argentina’s 2024-25 balance sheet shows higher exports and crush leading to lower stocks. Brazil’s 2024-25 balance sheet included higher production, increased 2.5 million tons to 171.5 million tons, reflecting estimates by CONAB and utilization data to date. As a result of reported data to date, Brazil’s 2024-25 crush, exports and ending stocks were raised.
China’s 2024-25 ending stocks were increased due to higher imports that were partly offset by higher crush. Global soybean crush for 2025-26 was reduced by 1.7 million tons to 365 million. Crush was reduced for India on the lower crop. Crush was reduced for Argentina on lower supplies due to lower beginning stocks and higher exports, partly offsetting a 1-million-ton increase to Brazilian crush to 59 million tons, raised in line with the higher crush estimate for the previous marketing year.
Global soybean exports for 2025-26 were increased 0.2 million tons to 188 million tons. Exports were raised 0.5 million tons for Brazil and 2.3 million for Argentina, in line with increases in the previous marketing year and large export registrations to date; mostly offsetting are lower shipments for the U.S. and Ukraine.
Global ending stocks were reduced 2 million tons to 122 million tons, with lower stocks for Argentina, Brazil, the U.S., the EU, Ukraine, and India, partly offset by higher stocks for China.
David Murray can be reached at [email protected].
