Americans are consuming more wheat-based products, but more of last year’s wheat is sitting in bins as United States wheat farmers face strong competition in export markets.
That was one conclusion of the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand report released May 12 by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Wheat supplies were projected up by 2% from 2024-25, as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower production. All wheat production was projected at 1,921 million bushels, down 3% from last year on lower harvested acreage.
The all-wheat yield was projected at 51.6 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushels from last year. The first 2025 NASS survey-based winter wheat production forecast of 1,382 million bushels was up by 2% from 2024, with hard red winter and white accounting for most of the increase.
Total 2025-26 domestic use was marginally higher, mostly on food use, which was projected at a record 977 million bushels. Exports were projected lower at 800 million bushels, due to what was expected to be strong competition from most major exporters in 2025-26. Projected 2025-26 ending stocks were 10% above last year at 923 million bushels, the highest level in six years. The projected 2025-26 season-average farm price is $5.30 per bushel, down $0.20 from last year on higher stocks and lower projected U.S. corn prices.
The global wheat outlook for 2025-26 was for larger supplies, increased consumption and trade, and slightly higher stocks. Supplies were projected to rise 4.9 million tons to 1,073.7 million with production projected at a record 808.5 million tons, more than offsetting lower carry-in stocks.
Increased output for the EU, India, the United Kingdom, China, Argentina, Russia, and Canada was expected to more than offset reductions for Kazakhstan, Australia, Pakistan, and the U.S. Beginning stocks were lowered for several countries, most notably China, Turkey and the EU.
Projected 2025-26 world consumption was raised 4.4 million tons to a record 808.0 million as food, seed, and industrial use was expected to continue growing, while feed and residual use was expected to relatively less with ample coarse grain supplies.
India and the EU, respectively, had the largest increases for FSI and feed and residual. Projected 2025-26 global trade was estimated at 213 million tons, up 6.9 million from last year, but well below the 2023-24 record of 222.2 million. The EU was expected to show the largest year-to-year increase among major exporters, up by 7.5 million tons to 34 million. Russia was projected to remain the leading 2025-26 global wheat exporter at 45 million tons, up from 43.5 million for 2024-25. Exports were also projected higher for Argentina and Ukraine while lower for Australia, Kazakhstan and the U.S.
Projected 2025-26 world ending stocks were 265.7 million tons, up 0.5 million from last year. China and Pakistan account for the largest reductions, while the largest increases are for India, the U.S., and the EU.
Corn outlook: U.S. will be top exporter
The corn crop was projected at 15.8 billion bushels, up 6% from a year ago on increases to both area and yield. The declared planted area of 95.3 million acres, if realized, would be the highest in more than a decade.
The yield projection of 181 bushels per acre was based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather. With smaller beginning stocks partially offsetting the increase in production, total corn supplies were forecast at 17.3 billion bushels.
Total U.S. corn use for 2025-26 was forecast to rise more than 1% relative to a year ago on higher domestic use and exports. Food, seed and industrial use was forecast at 6.9 billion bushels. Corn used for ethanol remained unchanged relative to a year ago at 5.5 billion bushels, based on expectations of essentially flat motor gasoline consumption and exports. Feed and residual use was projected higher to 5.9 billion bushels on larger supplies and lower expected prices.
U.S. corn exports for 2025-26 were forecast up from a year ago to 2.7 billion bushels, with lower prices driving a forecast increase in world trade. Exports for competitor countries such as Argentina and Ukraine are higher than a year ago. For Brazil, expectations of continued domestic demand growth limit export expansion.
The U.S. is projected to be the world’s largest exporter, with fractional decline in global market share. With total U.S. corn supply rising more than use, 2025-26 ending stocks were up 385 million bushels from last year and if realized would be the highest in absolute terms since 2019-20. Stocks would represent 11.6% of use, up from 9.3% the prior year. The season-average farm price was projected at $4.20 per bushel, down 15 cents.
World corn production was forecast to rise to a record 1.265 billion metric tons, with the largest increases for the U.S., Ukraine and Argentina. Partly offsetting are smaller crops projected for Tanzania and Canada. Larger area expectations drove an increase in corn production for Argentina, while a return to trend yield and higher area boosted production prospects for Ukraine.
For Brazil, an expansion in corn area drove larger crop prospects. World barley, sorghum, millet, mixed grain, and rye production were forecast higher than a year ago, while oat production was down slightly.
World corn consumption was expected to rise 2% to a record 1.274 billion metric tons, with consumption exceeding production for the second consecutive year. World corn imports were forecast to rise by 1%, driven by increases for several countries, including China, Vietnam, the EU, Venezuela, and Iran. Partly offsetting were projected declines for Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Turkey.
Global corn ending stocks for 2025-26 were down 9.5 million tons to 277.8 million tons, which if realized, would be the lowest since 2013-14. For 2025-26, stocks in the major exporting countries of Argentina, Brazil, Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. are projected to rise, mostly reflecting an increase for the U.S. partly offset by a decline for Brazil.
For China, total coarse grain imports for 2025-26 were forecast at 28.5 million tons, up 6.5 million from a year ago, but below the record 50.5 million reached during 2020-21. Corn imports were projected up 2 million tons to 10 million, while sorghum was up by 4 million to 8.5 million. Barley imports were up 0.5 million to 9.5 million.
Soybean outlook
The 2025-26 outlook for U.S. soybeans showed slightly lower supplies, higher crush, reduced exports, and lower ending stocks compared with 2024-25. The soybean crop was projected lower at 4.34 billion bushels with trend yield and lower area. With higher beginning stocks but lower imports and production, soybean supplies were down less than 1% from 2024-25.
Total U.S. oilseed production was projected at 128.5 million tons, up 0.1 million, as higher peanut, sunflower seed, and cottonseed was mostly offset by lower soybean and canola production.
U.S. soybean crush for 2025-26 was projected at 2.49 billion bushels, up 70 million from the 2024-25 forecast with higher soybean meal disappearance and exports. Domestic soybean meal disappearance was forecast to increase by two percent on increased pork and poultry production. U.S. soybean meal exports were forecast at 18 million short tons, indicating a 20% share of global trade, compared to the prior 5-year average of 19%.
U.S. soybean oil domestic use was forecast to increase in 2025-26, with soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock rising to 13.9 billion pounds. Soybean oil exports were forecast to decline on higher global supplies of palm oil, sunflower seed oil, and rapeseed oil. U.S. soybean oil stocks were up 6% compared to 2024-25.
Global trade of oilseeds and oilseed meals reflected demand growth in protein meal consumption spurred by relatively lower feed prices. Higher beginning stocks and rising soybean production in South America boosted exportable supply. Therefore, despite higher global demand, the U.S. share of global soybean exports was forecast at 26%, down from 28% last year. U.S. soybean exports were forecast at 1.815 billion bushels, down by 35 million from 2024-25.
U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2025-26 were projected at 295 million bushels, down by 55 million from the revised 2024-25 forecast. The soybean meal price was forecast at $310 per short ton, up $10. The soybean oil price is forecast at 46 cents per pound, up 1 cent from the prior year. Brazil’s soybean production was projected at a record 175 million tons, up 6 million from the prior year. Argentina’s soybean production was forecast at 48.5 million tons, down 0.5 million, as area shifts from soybeans to corn.
David Murray can be reached at [email protected].
