The April 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates were the first WASDE to be released since President Donald Trump’s tariffs began to take effect, with a note indicating the U.S. Department of Agriculture takes into account only those trade policies in place at the time.
The WASDE may not have taken into account a recent purchase by the Chinese state grain buyer of 3 million metric tons of United States soybeans. Corn exports were raised by 100 million bushels, reflecting the pace of sales and shipments to date and relatively competitive U.S. prices.
Corn outlook
April’s 2024-25 U.S. corn outlook was for greater exports, reduced feed and residual use, and smaller ending stocks. Feed and residual use was cut by 25 million bushels to 5.8 billion, based on disappearance during the December-February quarter as indicated in the March 31 Grain Stocks report.
Exports were raised by 100 million bushels, reflecting the pace of sales and shipments to date and relatively competitive U.S. prices. With no other use changes, ending stocks were down 75 million bushels from last month to 1.5 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers remained unchanged at $4.35 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2024-25 was forecast to be 0.4 million tons lower, to 1.495 billion bushels. April’s foreign coarse grain outlook was for reduced production, virtually unchanged trade, and larger ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production was raised, with increases for the EU, Tanzania, and Honduras partially offset by declines for Moldova, Cambodia, and Kenya. EU corn is higher, reflecting larger crops for Poland, Croatia, France, and Germany that were partially offset by reductions for Romania and Bulgaria.
Corn imports were raised for the EU, Mexico, Turkey, and Peru but lowered for Vietnam. Foreign corn ending stocks were higher relative to last month, reflecting increases for South Korea and Pakistan.
Soybean outlook
Reuters recently reported that Sinograin, the Chinese government grain buyer, bought 3 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans with tariffs. Sinograin’s primary role involves managing China’s strategic grain reserves, and it may have decided that lower-oil U.S. soybeans are preferred for long-term storage due to their lower susceptibility to spoilage compared to Brazilian soybeans, despite the tariffs.
The soybean shipments are scheduled to arrive in China between April and May 2025. Tariffs are paid based on ship dates, not when they are bought. Approximately 2 million tons will incur a 10% tariff, while about 800,000 tons arriving after May 13 will incur the full 44% tariffs. Analysts have pointed out that Sinograin is unlikely to recover the tariff costs through domestic sales.
The outlook for U.S. soybean supply and use for 2024-25 included higher imports and crush and lower ending stocks. Soybean crush was raised by 10 million bushels to 2.42 billion on higher soybean meal domestic use exports. Soybean oil exports were increased based on export commitments. Soybean oil for biofuel was lowered based on pace to date. However, stronger use was forecast for the last part of the marketing year due to tariffs affecting imports of other biofuel feedstocks, like used cooking oil. With soybean exports unchanged and imports increased slightly, soybean ending stocks were lowered 5 million bushels to 375 million.
Global 2024-25 soybean supply and demand forecasts include higher beginning stocks, lower production, and higher exports, crush, and ending stocks. Beginning stocks were raised by 2.7 million tons mainly on a revised 2023-24 crop for Brazil. After a review of 2024 disappearance data, Brazil’s 2023-24 production is raised 1.5 million tons to 154.5 million.
Global soybean production for 2024/25 was lowered by 0.2 million tons on lower production for Bolivia, partly offset by higher output for South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, and the European Union. Global soybean crush was raised 2 million tons to 354.8 million on higher crush for Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, and the U.S. Ample global soybean meal supplies, lower prices, and lower supply of alternative oilseed meals, led to increased use of soybean meal consumption globally.
Despite increased soybean crush, global vegetable oil production for 2024/25 was lowered by 0.9 million tons to 228.1 million as gains in soybean oil production are offset by lower palm oil production. Palm oil production is reduced 1.3 million tons to 78.2 million on lower output for Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.
Global soybean exports were raised 0.2 million tons to 182.1 million. Exports were raised for Canada were raised 1.1 million tons to 122.5 million, mainly on higher stocks for Brazil and the EU.
Wheat imports up, exports down
April’s supply and demand outlook for 2024-25 U.S. wheat was for larger supplies, slightly smaller domestic use, reduced exports, and increased ending stocks. Supplies were raised on higher projected imports, up 10 million bushels to 150 million, with increases for hard red spring, durum, white, and hard red winter. At this level, imports would be the largest since 2017-18. Domestic consumption was forecast to be 2 million bushels lower on reduced seed use, based primarily on the March NASS Prospective Plantings report.
Feed and residual use remained unchanged at 120 million bushels, but there were offsetting by-class revisions based on the March 31 NASS Grain Stocks report. Exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 820 million with reductions to HRS and HRW.
Projected 2024-25 ending stocks were raised 27 million bushels to 846 million, 22% above the previous year. The season average farm price remained unchanged at $5.50 per bushel.
The 2024-25 global wheat outlook this month was for smaller supplies, consumption, and exports and larger ending stocks. Supplies were lowered 0.8 million tons to 1,065.9 million primarily on reduced production estimates for Saudi Arabia and the EU, as well as lower beginning stock estimates for Uzbekistan and Israel. Projected 2024-25 global trade was cut 1.3 million tons to 206.8 million, mostly on lower export forecasts for Russia, Australia, and the EU that are only partly
offset by increases for Canada and Ukraine. Exports for 2024-25 were expected to be 7% lower than the previous year. Projected 2024-25 world ending stocks were increased 0.6 million tons to 260.7 million as higher stocks for India, Russia, the U.S., and the EU were partly offset by a decrease for China.
Global stocks for 2024-25 are now 3% below the previous year and the lowest since 2015-16.
David Murray can be reached at [email protected].
